Ukraine close to breaking point

The situation in Ukraine is getting close to the breaking point while the U.S. and other Western countries are saying that Russia may invade Ukraine soon in the future. The U.S. and Russia will sit at a dialogue table together to resolve the situation in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday. The Guardian said that the Geneva meeting will be the last attempt to resolve the situation diplomatically.

According to The Associated Press, White House press secretary Jen Psaki described the Russian forces’ move into Belarus as part of as “extremely dangerous situation.” “We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine,” she said. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also said that there is a real danger of a new military dispute after meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Tuesday. Russia has its forces assembled in southern Belarus, which borders with the north of Ukraine for joint training on February 10.

Ukraine has warned that Russia has "almost completed" its build-up of forces that could be used for an offensive against the country and revealed facts about Russian forces near the Ukraine border. According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment, Russia has now deployed more than 127,000 troops in the region, including 106,000 land troops and 21,000 navy and air troops. There are tactical troops with 36 launchers for mid-range missiles to target key facilities. In particular, 3,000 Russian troops have been deployed to Donbas in southeastern Ukraine to support rebels where the Ukraine government forces and pro-Russia separatist rebels are engaged in a battle.

The U.S. reconfirmed sanctions against Russia in case the country attacks Ukraine while implying additional military support to Ukraine. According to CNN, the Biden administration is considering providing additional military support, including anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missile systems, to Ukraine through NATO. It was also revealed that U.S. special operations forces already rotate in and out of the country to provide training to Ukrainian forces.

Sanctions against Russia are also in discussion in case of Russia’s attack of Ukraine, such as blocking the SWIFT payment system to suspend Russian companies from international financial transactions and halting the Nord Stream 2 project, which is natural gas pipeline connecting Russia to Germany.

Diplomatic solutions are also being utilized. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine on Wednesday and will have an emergency meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.


Youn-Jong Kim zozo@donga.com