Tesla’s U.S. market share expected to decline to 20% in 2025

A new study from S&P Global Mobility projected that Tesla, which controls about 65 percent of the U.S. electric vehicle market, will see its shares drop to 20 percent in 2025 as multiple automakers, including Hyundai, will quickly gain market share with various EV models.

According to Global Mobility on Wednesday, Tesla’s EV market share in the U.S. was 65 percent from January to September 2022. A total of 525,000 EVs were registered during the period, and 340,000 were Tesla.

S&P Global Mobility indicated that Tesla’s market share, which stood at 79 percent in 2020, declined to 71 percent in 2021 and is continuing to decline. Although Tesla is taking up two-thirds of the EV market, its dominance will decline with the fast-growing EV market. According to the report, the number of EV models on sale in the U.S., which is 48 at present, would increase to 159 by the end of 2025. By then, Tesla’s market share may decline to 20 percent.

Following Tesla, Ford is the No. 2 EV maker with a market share of 7 percent. Kia (5 percent), Chevrolet (4 percent), and Hyundai (4 percent) followed. Hyundai and Kia are together taking up 9 percent, being No. 2 following Tesla. On the list of top 10 EVs, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 were No. 7 and 8 in EV registrations. Except for Tesla Model Y and Model 3, every model has yet to achieve registrations above 30,000 units this year.


Gun-Huk Lee gun@donga.com