Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucus

Former U.S. President Donald Trump scored a record-setting first place at the Iowa caucus, the first Republican presidential primary, with 51% of the votes on Monday. The gap with second place, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, was nearly 30% points. The outcome proved that Trump’s high ratings in public opinion polls were justified. “I really think this is time for everybody, our country, to come together. We want to come together, whether it’s Republican or Democrat,” said Trump in his victory speech, showing confidence in winning the presidential elections in November.

It would be premature to assume a second term for Trump at this stage, as the primary has just kicked off, and there are still 10 months away from the election. Nevertheless, if Trump wins the New Hampshire primary next week, where general voters, as well as party members, participate, there is a strong chance of Trump being named as the Republican candidate earlier than expected. Trump is already ahead of President Joe Biden in several opinion polls. Data shows his support comes from a larger voter base, expanding beyond white, low-educated, low-income voters. Trump Season 2 is becoming a likely scenario.

Countries worldwide are already making subtle preparations, adjusting their foreign policies in preparation for the re-emergence of the United States advocating ‘America First.’ Russia is steering the war with Ukraine to a war of attrition, postponing the end of the war beyond Trump’s return. North Korea openly threatening war and escalating provocations against South Korea could be related to hopes of direct conversations with the U.S. Some countries among U.S. allies openly oppose military support for Ukraine. In contrast, many countries prioritize their own defense, preparing for the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawing from its role as the world’s police.

South Korea must also be prepared for uncertainties that could accompany a possible second Trump term. Trump's foreign policy, driven by interests and profits, had driven South Korea from extreme confrontation to dramatic dialogue before reverting to tension. Moreover, he is predicting a second term that is even more intense and dramatic. He may deal to ease sanctions in exchange for North Korea's nuclear freeze or demand an increase in defense cost sharing by suggesting the withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed in Korea. We should strengthen self-defense capabilities and expedite the institutionalization of an integrated nuclear umbrella between Korea and the United States. We should also widen our diplomacy scope to cope with the intensifying hegemony between the U.S. and China.