[Focus] 3 factors prompt Kim Jong-Il's China trip

Diplomatic sources in Beijing say there are three main reasons for North Korea's strongman Kim Jong-Il to embark on a visit to China early this year as a follow-up to his visit last May.

The first concerns changing relations with Washington. It is obvious that the incoming administration of George W. Bush would take a harder line toward Pyongyang than the Clinton administration.

The incoming president pointed out North Korea and China as the most menacing states in terms of missiles, repeatedly calling for the erection of a national missile defense system. This differs much from President Bill Clinton¡¯s North Korea policy. In these circumstances, North Korea felt it necessary to coordinate with China its foreign policy toward the new leadership of the United States.

The second is strengthening ties with Beijing. The trip of North Korea¡¯s National Defense Commission chairman to China last May improved Pyongyang-Beijing relations considerably, but there remain some ruffles to be smoothed over.

To begin with, Chinese President Jiang Zemin certainly will not visit North Korea early this year, contrary to earlier expectations that he would do so. Pyongyang has been looking forward to receiving his return visit and precedents call for such reciprocation of visit at the beginning of the year. That he is unwilling to make a Pyongyang trip might signify that the two countries have something yet to be settled, and Kim is making another visit to Beijing to clear the way, diplomatic observers in Beijing believe.

Lastly, the supreme leader of North Korea is in need of consulting China regarding his return visit to Seoul. The visit to Seoul reported is to take place in the first half of the year. It is important for the leaderships in Pyongyang and Beijing to discuss and come up with common strategies to deal with the emerging inter-Korean relations in a new situation to be created by the arrival of the Republican administration in Washington that is likely to take a tough stand toward both North Korea and China.

Lee Jong-Hwan ljhzip@donga.com