[From Kwanghwamun] Awaiting leading players of `V curve`

``Love is no more love but luv.`` This is the emphatic tone of the black comedy, ``Luv.`` The author dubbed exceptional love as ``luv,`` something different from traditional love.

Nowadays, the word luv often appears in newspapers. But the word is used in articles on economic affairs, unrelated to the dramas. This is to say that the business cycle is depicted by the form of a word, namely, L for business stagnation, U for recovery, and V for fast recovery.

Last year, the economic experts projected that the U.S. economy was at L or U. They estimated that its growth rate for the first quarters of the year would be less than 1 percent. If many people come out with dark prospects of the future economy, the forecast is rapidly expanding. And the same is true in the U.S. case.

However, the reality was different. Unexpectedly, it was found that the U.S. economy has maintained steady growth. The growth rate of the U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarters of the year, announced Apr. 27, registered 2.0 percent, 1 percentage point up from the fourth quarter of 2000. Of course, some analysts cautioned against premature optimism, noting that the figure is a mere estimate of potential.

In view of the estimated growth rate, the U.S. economy will mark a V. And it appears the Korean economy also will be heading for a green light. This is mainly because Korea`s exports to the United States are expected to increase. In general, if the U.S. growth rate drops 1 point, the Korean economic growth rate is estimated to slip 0.6 point. So the U.S. economic movement is a matter of great concern to Korea.

Since dark clouds hang over the Korean economy, its is faced with a dismal forecast. The Korean enterprises with a sense of insecurity have abstained from planning to increase investments. But rather, they are planning to reduce the scale of the projected investments.

The late Lee Byung-Chul, founder of Samsung Group, had a keen insight to perceive the future of the economic movement. While most other enterprises shrank their business activities with pessimistic prospects, he constructed a large factory at the trough of the business cycle. While other enterprises are competitively expanding investments and facilities during the peak of the business cycle, he instead downsized or streamlined them for consolidating the business structure. The businesses that run against this management principle are destined to ruin.

In a marathon race, in order to win the contest, one of the leaders` group must get out of the group and come forward. And if they are mutually restraining one another, they cannot reach the finish line in a good record, as a whole.

Aren`t there any Korean that will dare expand investments and facilities, judging that this is the high time to do so? Which firm can play a leading role in drawing a V out of luv? And which enterprise will become the first to perceive the economic future?

Yet it is worrisome whether the government, with various regulations, will hinder enterprises from coming in front of others. The government lifted the regulation banning the business firms from investing more than 25 percent of their assets into other firms, but it has revived the rule, trying to brandish its authority to control private enterprises. The government has yet to give up an old-fashioned practice of interfering with the private sector.

Hopefully, the rosy picture for the U.S. economy will have a favorable impact on the Korean economy. Now is the time for the enterprises, the leading players of the production, to come forward to sprint for the nation`s economic revitalization.

Ko Seung-Cheol cheer@donga.com