Taiwan Holds General Election Tomorrow

Taiwan will conduct the parliamentary and local elections, which would help to evaluate the political direction in the latter half of President Chen Shui-bian`s ruling tomorrow.

The Taiwanese government will conduct three elections together in one day such as the parliamentary election, the local elections to select mayors of 7 cities and heads of 18 local areas. Experts adduced core variables to impact on this election such as △ the conflict between Taiwan and China on the independence of Taiwan, △ the economy that is worst for the past 50 years, and △ the disruption within the Nationalist Party.

For the parliamentary election to elect total 225 seats, 168 seats will be determined by direct vote, the representatives of aborigines and Taiwanese living abroad will take 8 seats respectively. And the remaining 41 seats will be distributed according to the vote ratio that each party gains.

The reliable sources anticipate that since the majority opposition party, Nationalist Party (NP) possessing 123 seats, has been split by the foundation of the Coalition for Taiwan Independence (CTI) led by former President Lee Teng-hui, the Nationalist Party and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPM) possessing 70 seats will compete in order to secure the majority seats.

The DPM announced that it would pursue to secure the majority for stable political operation by combining the Taiwan-born representatives within the CTI and NP, forecasting the large-scale reshuffle of political circles.

In the mayor elections of Taipei and Gaoshung, it is likely that NP`s candidate Ma Ingju and DPM`s candidate Shei Changting will be re-elected.

Experts forecasted that the relationship between Taiwan and China would be aggravated if the DPM would accomplish the remarkable success in the elections, taking into consideration Presiden Chen`s remarks in the final phase of the election that "to accept the principle of one China is a treacherous behavior to betray the country."

Jong-Dae Ha orionha@donga.com