Sign of ‘Power Struggle between Old and Prime Generation’

There are some signs that the transfer of the political power of China becomes a power struggle.

The turning over of the political power seemed to be limited whether the President Jiang Zemin(76) would resign or not; however, it seems to be spread to a struggle between the old generation, who wants the President Jiang to remain in office, and the young generation, who wants a smooth transfer of the power.

The International Herald Tribune, which is published in Paris, analyzed, “Since the President Jiang, who was predicted to resign in this Fall, changed his mind to stay, there are indications that China will have the most serious political struggles since the reform and opening,” and “the Beidaihuh Meeting, which decides main topics for the National Representatives’ Conference in this Fall, is predicted to be the test stage for the power struggle.”

The most interested subject in the Beidaihuh Meeting, which started on the 22nd, is the transfer of the power. Until the beginning of this year, it was predicted to be easy to transfer the power from the ‘third generation leaders’ with the President Jiang at the summit to the ‘4th generation leaders’ with the Vice President Hu Jintao at the top.

However, since the earlier last month, when the President Jiang’s ‘3 Representation Theory (a theory that the Communist Party should represent △ advanced productivity

△ advanced civilization and △ the fundamental interests of the broad public)’ was started to be promoted more than ever through all media, the talk about the President Jiang’s remaining in office was accelerated.

It is still not clear whether the President Jiang will resign or not. The IHT reported quoting the news sources in the Chinese Communist Party that, therefore, there would be a very heated debate between the people who were in favor of him remaining in office and the people who wanted him to resign.

The Associate General Secretary system, which was planned to be established with the succession of the office of the Prime Minister by the Deputy Premier Wen Jiabao, the Vice President Hu Jintao, and the Apparatus Manager of the Communist Party Zeng Qinghong in mind, will also be discussed.

The IHT also reported quoting the sources in Beijing, “Since the resignation of the President Jiang continues to be in confusion, the 16th Chinese Communist Party National Representatives’ Conference, which was scheduled in this September might be postponed to the end of November.” It is also one of the main topics in this Beidaihuh meeting whether the President Jiang’s ‘3 Representation Theory’ would be included in the Party Constitution or not. If the President Jiang’s theory is include in the Party Constitution, according to the western diplomats’ analysis, the President Jiang will naturally step up to the same level with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

The transfer of the President Jiang’s power is spreading to the power struggle between the old generation leaders and the prime generation middle group before the Party Conference in this fall.

The people, who are in favor of the President Jiang’s remaining in office, are the high rank leaders of the Party, army, and government, and they are mostly in their sixties. The Governors of the 31 provinces and the autonomous districts, who are also in their sixties, strongly hope him to remain in office.

The influencing group that promotes the President Jiang’s 3 Representation Theory is also them. They are predicted to be withdrawn from the power losing the hard earned status and privileges during the era of the President Jiang’s ruling if the Vice President Hu Jintao succeeds the power.

Especially, since the Vice President Hu Jintao strongly propelled the reducing the age policy, which employed the prime generation instead of the old generation, while grabbing the personnel commission of the Party, their fear grows.

However, the middle group of the Party and the government clearly shows their discontent saying, “There might be a crisis in the lawfulness of the Party if the President Jiang remains in office.”

They insist that if the 76-year-old President Jiang remains in office, the ‘resignation of the 70 years old or older political bureau members of the party’ and ‘the principle of the impossibility of the 75 years old or older people’s taking the office of the President’ will be collapsed. The thing that they aim for is surely the elevation of their power caused by the resignation of the President Jiang.

Since the foundation of China by the communist revolution 53 years ago, the first time that the power was transferred smoothly was when Deng Xiaoping handed over to the President Jiang. Therefore, the method of transferring the power from the ‘third generation’ to the ‘4th generation’ will be the touchstone of the Chinese power transfer since the reform and open.

Especially, since all the convulsions of China such as the anti right wing struggle in 1956, the Culture Revolution in the 1960’s, and the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 were started with a crack within the Party; it is difficult for anyone to predict the outcome of this conflict.

The diplomatic annalists in Beijing predicted, “If the President Jiang insists to remain in office, there is a big chance for this could leap to the power struggle within the Party,” and “this will not be for ideology but will be a dirty fight for power.”

Jong-Dae Ha orionha@donga.com