On Top of Anti-Terror, There is the North Korean Nuclear Problem

The Washington Post evaluated on the 17th, “The revealing (of nuclear weapon developing plan) of the isolated Stalin country (North Korea) put the George W. Bush Administration, which is pursuing military actions to remove massive killing weapons in Iraq, to an unprecedented diplomatic crisis.”

Iraq is denying the massive killing weapons development plan. So, the UN hurries the inspection to confirm it with their own eyes. On the other hand, North Korea acknowledged that they were developing nuclear weapons by themselves. If Iraq admitted it as North Korea did, America could go into the military action right away.

The White House held the National Security Meeting at night of the 16th (local time), and decided to promote the peaceful way of solving the problem. It was the conclusion out of agonies after 12 days since the dispatch of nuclear weapons development from North Korea.

The difference between Iraq and North Korea is the fact that the American ally, Korea might be involved under the fire of war. However, there is another American ally, Israel near Iraq. The diplomatic and military ability of America, on top of everything, seems to be the most important factor of consideration.

America draws the sword half way against Iraq. America abolished the `win-win strategy,` which intended to simultaneously execute two wars and win them both, at the 4-Year QDR, which was announced last October. Instead of that, she took the `one-plus strategy,` which intended to execute one war and keep a status quo in another region. According to this strategy, if she hit Iraq, the Korean Peninsular is for status quo.

The strategy can be changed. America, which has 1.4 million men and the state-of-the-art weapon system, can dominate Iraq with just one corps out of the Central Headquarters. The Korean Peninsular is under the US Pacific Headquarters. She has reserve power to execute two wars with two headquarters.

However, it takes time to prepare a war. Against Iraq, she has replenished ammunitions and checked the equipment for 13 months after the 9-11 terror and 11 months after the Afghanistan War. In case of the Korean Peninsular, although there are 100,000 men in Korea and Japan, the military power of North Korea is far stronger than Iraq.

The cost of war also seems to exceed the Iraqi War. In case of the Afghanistan War to wipe out the Al Qaida, it was one to two billion dollars a day, but the US Congress Budget Department calculates that it will cost 6 to 9 billion dollars against Iraq.

The cost of the war is different from the length of the war, but the problem is that it will cost 1 to 4 billion dollars to occupy the country even after the war. Although the GNP of America exceeds 10 trillion dollars, it is difficult to start another war than Iraq or spend additional money for the cost of war considering the economical slump of America.

Eun-Taek Hong euntack@donga.com