[Opinion] Trap of Public Opinion Polls

There is an old Korean saying `Muffling the voice of the people is harder than blocking the stream of water.` In Britain, they say `the truth is what everyone is saying.` The power of public opinion is strong as such. Yet, it was also public opinion that crucified Jesus. 18th century French scholar Voltaire, therefore, once said that a country is to lose everything once the people starts discussions. There are two sides of the coin when it comes to public opinion. The power of public opinion, anyway, is great in this age of democracy where people are no more fools. So much as, it is now considered an object of woe that cannot be either seen or touched.

▷It seems that presidential candidate Roh is intent to tap into the power. He proposed yesterday to candidate of the People`s Union21 Chung Mong-joon that they consolidate the candidacy through a public opinion poll instead of an election. By making the new offer, Roh is now taking a bet of `do or die.` Roh has been trailed behind Chung in recent polls by a small margin. Roh seems pinning hopes on that people will change their mind after a TV debate. Chung, on his part, might as well worry about the debate, and it is now said that the Chung camp is changing its words. It, therefore, remains to be seen whether the consolidation of candidacy will ever happen.

▷The power of public opinion does not necessarily mean that the results are absolutely correct, however. Public polls are bound to work within a certain margin of errors. If a nationwide poll has a margin of error of ±3% with 95% reliability, for instance, there are 95% of chances that the results, when the survey is asked again among adults across the country, stay in the range of the margin. Then, ranking based on a margin of error makes little sense. The results can be overturned depending on the way the results are translated. This is a `trap` of public polls.

▷Even with the same questions and on the same date, the results can differ significantly depending on how the questions are sequenced and asked. In fact, recent surveys on `consolidation of candidacy` by two different newspapers found contradicting results. While one found that a majority of the responded supported the idea, the results of the other indicated that people opposed the plan. Are the people of this country approving or disapproving the consolidation? If rules are set for the game, the two sides must agree to accept a margin of error. Still, we cannot but feel somewhat bitter about that the men wishing to become a president of a country are taking about a public poll over such a big issue.

Jun Jin-woo, Editorial Writer, youngji@donga.com