Iraq`s War Plans

The basic tactics of Iraqi forces can be summarized as “dispersion, delay and street fighting.” Iraqi troops which had been hiding in underground bunkers have created their first defensive line in Nasiria adjacent to Southern Basra.

Although the size of the Iraqi military force is less than half that of the Gulf war, 60,000 troops, among them in particular the 15,000 Special Republican Guard and 5,000 Special Security Agents including snipers are considered to be the most elite troops.

Saddam Hussein is depending on these soldiers, and has already sent 10,000 of his best troops to his hometown of Tikrit.

To minimize damage from air-raids, the already dispersed Republican Guard troops have rallied at two defensive lines 80 km apart from Baghdad and right outside of the capital city.

When the last resistance line collapses, tens of thousands of loyal Iraqi troops will retreat into the city and commence in bloody street fighting. Civilian shootings also haunt the U.S. troops. Civilian casualties including `human shields` are continuously increasing with stepped up bombing. If the war drags on over 6 months, civilians will suffer with lack of food, and drinking water along with stronger anti-war opinion around the world.

Furthermore, biological and chemical weapons used either by President Hussein who is on the verge of his own safety or by an Iraqi commander who is on the firing line with disconnected communications is a constant threat. Oil wells and oil producing facilities also may set on fire one after another presumably by Iraqi troops.

President Hussein`s whereabouts are as of yet unknown. People have urged him to fight this holy war until death, but intelligence reports say he has already left Baghdad and is hiding in an underground bunker or in a safe facility in his hometown Tikrit. In the U.S., if the war continues for a long time, people worry about possible economic damage. The weather heats up there and Even some within the Department of Defense said, “We are not sure yet if the war will end in 3 months or in 3 years.”

sechepa@donga.com