No Matter What, Terrorist Attacks Not Likely to End Soon

Would it be possible for all the countries of the world to prevent terrorism if they were thoroughly prepared?

Econometrics Professor Walter Enders at the University of Alabama and Professor Todd Sandler at the University of South California do not think so. The two professors both predicted the possibility of large-scale terrorist attacks a year before the September 11, and recently announced their theory of the ‘cycle of terrorism’, a theory somewhat similar to that for economics.

The Wall Street Journal introduced the two professors’ theory on May 19, which was applied to world-wide terrorism.

The game theory started with a theory from John F. Nash, well known through the film, “A Beautiful Mind.” Nash’s theory is understood in terms of the prisoner’s dilemma.

Two accomplices arrested without real evidence against them are separately interrogated. If one person admits to their crime, his sentence is reduced, whereas the other will get 12-year sentence. However, if the both confess to the crime, they will each receive a 7-year sentence. If both do not confess, they will be free men since there is no evidence against them. The result? They are both most likely to confess to the crime. This is because the two are both afraid of the other confessing to the crime. If they stay silent, they will not be punished, but even knowing this, they are still highly likely to confess. This is the prisoner’s dilemma.

Terrorism was likened to this. Let us assume that there are two countries called A and B. If A reinforces its guard against terrorist attacks, B will be attacked by terrorists. B knows it, so B also reinforces its guard against terrorist attacks. Hence, the both have stepped up their guard against any possible attack. The terrorists attack the weaker country anyway.

The best scenario is for both countries not to guard against terrorism. In reality, however, A and B both spend an enormous amount of money, but it is still difficult to predict which of the two will be safer.

For instance, once US airports introduced metal detectors, airplane hijacking incidents dramatically reduced from 70 to 16 cases in 1973. However, in terms of the total number of terrorist attacks, there has been no real change. Kidnapping cases increased from 20 to 48 cases and sniper shooting cases increased from 20 to 36 cases. The US stepped up its guard against terrorist attacks on US embassies overseas in 1976 and the number of terrorist attacks on US embassies dropped from 28 to 20 that year. Terrorist attacks on US soldiers and diplomats however surged from 20 to 53 cases.

Game theory assumes that the participants of the game think rationally. So it is not comfortable to think of terrorists as participants in a game.

Terrorists are, however, completely rational thinkers in terms of choosing time, place, and type of terrorist attacks as they utilize limited resources to their maximum efficiency.

The most dangerous attitude for dealing with terrorists lies in countries like the US which is currently ‘at war’ with terrorism. The terrorist attacks in Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia, are a good example. The most effective way to prevent terrorism in this case is concentrating on training camps, weapons caches, and sources of financial means rather than having a defensive posture.

Eun-Taek Hong euntack@donga.com