Voters in Their Forties Hold the Casting Vote

It seems that the votes of those in their 40s will become the decisive factor in the outcome of the 4/15 election.

According to public opinion experts and prospective analyses of each party, the voters in their 40s who initially displayed a tendency to support the Uri Party have quickly changed their minds, becoming the key element in shifting the Uri Party’s “overwhelming lead” to a “relative lead” since the passing of President Roh’s impeachment bill.

According to the results of a phone-administered public poll that this post entrusted to the Korea Research Center (KRC), voters in their 40s showed a 23.4 percent support for the Grand National Party and 41.1 percent for the Uri Party resulting in a 17.7 percent difference among 1,995 eligible voters throughout the country.

However, public opinion experts and each party analyze that considering the overall voting tendency since the opening ceremony of election (April 2), those in their 40s seceded en masse from their support of the Uri Party which led to a reversal of support rating between the Grand National Party and the Uri Party.

KRC representative Kim Duk-young stated, “As the voters in their 40s recently lined up with the popular notion of the ‘Roh wave,’ ‘Park wave’ for those in their 50s and 60s, they have become the central force that are shifting the election atmosphere in Youngnam and in the metropolitan area,” and added, “Depending on which side they choose to support, that will determine the outcome.”

In particular, Kim forecasted, “Due to the two-faced nature of reform and conservation of the 40s age group, they will serve the role of a ‘casting vote’ that determines the general current between the 50-60 age group and the 20-30 age group”.

On the other hand, according to the “Voters’ Consciousness” poll that the Central Election Management Committee conducted during April 8-9, among 1,500 eligible voters throughout the country, 91.5 percent of those in their 40s indicated that they will “participate in the election,” marking the second highest figure after the over 50s age group (92.3 percent).

In addition, on the candidate selection criterion of “character and ability,” the 40s and 50s age groups showed a 47.5 percent, 53.7 percent support respectively, while on the criterion of “party and policy pledges,” those in their 20s and 30s showed a 42.9 percent, 47.3 percent support respectively, indicating that the younger age group relatively values the criterion of “party,” and the older values “character.”

Sung-Won Park Min-Hyuk Park swpark@donga.com mhpark@donga.com