Putting a Damper on Kim Jong-il’s Plan

Yesterday’s blast at Yongcheon train station, North Korea, will have an impact on North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il’s policy plan during his visit to China and further negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issues directly or indirectly.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency reported on Friday that Kim’s visit to China on Monday through Thursday played a pivotal role in reaching a new milestone between Sino-North Korean relations. Focusing on this broadcasting, experts analyzed that even though it is hard to predict, North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il must map out certain schemes about economic reform and nuclear issues, based on his recent visit to China.

Many observers see that the U.S. State Department’s unprecedented and immediate response to this incident, suggesting humanitarian assistance, came from reading such movements between China and North Korean.

U.S. State Department’s Unprecedented Reaction—

United States State Department spokesman Richard Boucher answered reporters’ question on the Yongcheon explosion “exceptionally and sincerely” on Thursday (local time).

“We watched some reporting on a significant number of casualties in this incident. It is very sorrowful and we’d like to express our condolence to the victims,” he said. After then, as reporters asked what support the U.S. could give to North Korea under such circumstances, he answered that the U.S. didn’t clearly know what it could do for North Korea but was prepared to help meet the humanitarian needs of North Korean people.

Especially, as to the question asking if there is some difficulty in helping North Korea due to the relationship between the U.S. and North Korea, he answered that there was no hurdle in helping meet the humanitarian needs of North Korean people on the U.S.’ part.

Humanitarian Assistance and Negotiations on North Korean Nuclear Issues—

We can infer the context behind Mr. Boucher’s response from the former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, James R. Lilley’s interview with FOX News Channel on this day.

“I think that America should express its willingness to give humanitarian and medical support to North Korean people and then watch them carefully at this time,” he said.

In other words, it means that if the U.S. comes up with “candid dialogue channel” through humanitarian assistance, it will be able to judge what is North Korea’s real intention on the U.S.’ call for a complete, verified, irreversible, and dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program.

According to diplomatic sources in Washington, Kim Jong-il may have heard from the Chinese leadership about U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney`s specific messages during his visit to China ahead of Kim’s visit. Sources said Kim may think in many ways while managing this disaster.

Diplomatic sources analyze that we need to focus on the thaw between American and Iran relationship after the U.S.’ humanitarian support to Iran during the earthquake disaster in Iranian southern city of Bam last December.

Kim Jong-il’s Noticeable Plan—

It is clear that this blast will have much impact on Kim’s policy on state affairs of focusing on economic reform after his recent visit to China.

As Yongcheon, bordering on Sinuiju, is a logistical and energy demand and supply hub, this train disaster will disrupt the bottom of North Korea’s economic reform. Kim’s Sinuiju development project will be directly hit by that as well.

Reportedly, ahead of Kim’s visit to China, the Chinese government lifted its regulation on flowering complex in Liaoning province, belonging to Yang Bin, the former Administrative minister of a special administrative zone in Sinuiju. It clearly illustrates how strong Kim’s will is to re-operate a special administrative zone in Sinuiju. North Korean experts say that Kim is likely to present his plan based not only on the management of this train disaster, but also on the result of his visit to China and the promotion of economic reform in the wake of this incident.

Young-Sik Kim Soon-Taek Kwon spear@donga.com maypole@donga.com