“Korea Will Rank Eighth with 27 Medals”

Two U.S. economics professors forecast that Korea will take eighth place in the Athens Olympics, winning a total of 27 medals.

Professor Andrew Bernard of Dartmouth College and Professor Meghan Busse of U.C. Berkeley calculated estimate results of the Olympics with prediction models, in a report in the recent edition of the journal “The Review of Economics and Statistics,” reported the U.S. media, including financial website CNN/Money on August 11.

According to their predictions, the U.S. will take first place with 93 medals including 37 gold, with Russia (83 medals), China (57), Germany (55), Australia (54) following in second, third, fourth, and fifth place respectively. Furthermore, South Korea, host nation Greece, and the U.K were projected to take eighth place with 27 medals each, after France (37) and Italy (33).

The two professors named four factors having the greatest impact on a country`s ability to win medals according to an analysis of Olympic outcomes for the last 40 years: per capita income, population, a record of past success, and a host effect.

Canada and Japan were cited as nations that took home a disappointing number of medals compared to their economy, with the two professors estimating that Canada would stop at 12~13 medals when its economic power would more likely suggest 25~26. On the other hand, the Netherlands was projected to win around 20 medals, well above expectations, for though not a big nation, it is economically sound.

The two professors announced the estimated medal numbers of 35 nations three weeks before the Sydney Olympics using the same model, and showed an accuracy of 96 percent, predicting the total number of U.S. medals (97) and gold medals (39) correctly.

Kwon-Heui Hong konihong@donga.com