N. Korea Proceeds With Nuclear Test

North Korea went ahead with a nuclear test on October 9, 6 days after it proclaimed it would do. The communist country ignored warning from the UN Security Council and pushed its plan shortly not giving enough time for the international community to engage in serious efforts to dissuade the regime’s plan. By doing so, the regime realized its late founder Kim Il Sung’s wish that the DPRK must develop nuclear weapons.

What the North wants-

It seems that the North thought the only way for the country to survive against Bush administration’s hard-line policy on North Korea is to have nuclear capabilities and conducted the test, which is the last stage to be recognized as a nuclear power.

The Stalinist country has intensified threats one by one over the past five years. First it lifted the nuclear freeze. Second it withdrew from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. Third it reprocessed spent fuels. Fourth it declared it has nuclear capabilities. Fifth it launched multiple missiles. This nuclear test directly aims at the U.S. that has not agreed on bilateral negotiations with the North despite all those threats. Politics and Diplomacy professor Kim Geun-sik of the Kyungnam University said, “It seems that the North made a strategic decision to become and be acknowledged as a nuclear power and then negotiate with the U.S.”

The North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement on March 31, 2005 saying, “As we become a country with nuclear capabilities, the six-party talks should be a place where all participants duly address the issue of disarmament on an equal basis.”

What the North wants from this test is the withdrawal of the U.S.’s anti-North Korean policy, subsequent normalization of the bilateral relation between the North and the U.S., security guarantee of its regime, and economic assistants. It also wants to strengthen its regime and unite its people. However, it is unlikely that the North will get what it wants. That is because the U.S. is not likely to give in to and engage in bilateral dialogues with the North. The North is likely to face international sanctions led by the U.S. and Japan and another pressures coming from the stoppage of trade and assistance from South Korea and China. Now the ball is in the court of China, the biggest benefactor of North Korea. The government officials said, “China is unlikely to push the North into a corner until destabilizing its regime.”

Why so fast? Why on October 9?-

In regard to the reason the North conducted the test less than a week after it proclaimed it would do, most expects believe that the country already set the date when it issued a statement.

The North announced on October 3 in its statement of the Foreign Ministry that it would carry out a nuclear test in the future and maintain its principle to keep Korean peninsula nuclear free through dialogue and negotiation but did not specify when it was going to take place. Some analyzed that North Korea’s proclamation is just an empty threat to have negotiations with the U.S. Given what it said and what happened now, observations have proven to be wrong.

Lee Sang-hyun, director of security studies at Sejong Institute said, “The lesson here is to realize we cannot expect anything reasonable from the unreasonable North.”

Some analysts say the reason the North brazenly conducted the test before the international efforts to dissuade the North is the country wanted to change the situation because it thought it could not expect anything from the U.S. The U.S. has stepped up financial sanctions against the North by targeting Banco Delta Asia starting last September.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement on October 3 and explained the reason for the nuclear test saying, “Under the circumstances that the U.S. is isolating and pressuring us to death, we are experiencing the worst situation. Therefore we cannot sit back and do nothing about it.”

Experts analyzed the North set October 9 as a date for a nuclear test to maximize the effect. October 8 is the 9th anniversary for inauguration of Kim Jong Il as the general secretary of the Workers’ Party. October 10 is the 61st anniversary for the foundation of the Workers’ Party. Given that, the North seems to have decided to carry out the plan on October 9, which comes between the two important anniversaries of North Korea, to utilize the festivity to show off regime stability and to unite its people.

North Korean leadership in agreement-

It is largely believed that the test was based on the consensus of the North Korean leadership not just led by Kim Jong Il or hard-liners including the military leadership.

According to this analysis, the North heightened the tension under the roadmap since the declaration of nuclear weapons last February. Indeed, the statement issued by the Foreign Ministry on October 3 said, “The declaration of nuclear weapons was on the premise that we would carry out a nuclear test. The threats and pressures from the U.S. made us seek nuclear deterrence and to conduct a nuclear test, which is a prerequisite for nuclear deterrence.

taewon_ha@donga.com