Withdrawal Flight Started?

Collapse of a Dike Called the Uri Party Started from an Unexpected Crack-

Lawmaker Im Jong-in walked out of the party on January 22, criticizing the Uri Party for going conservative. He previously was not a member of the Uri Party lawmakers who were preparing to form a new party nor did he show any intention to quit the party. He said, “I don’t think the government and the ruling Uri Party’s political line is different from the Grand National Party’s. I will form a reformist party representing the general public and the middle class to prevent the GNP from winning the upcoming election.”

His decision is not in line with the move of the Uri Party legislators preparing to establish a new party. But analysts say his action will effectively remove much of the psychological resistance that those who tried to leave the party and organize a new party felt.

Uri Party lawmakers pushing to create a new party and those opposing the idea will compromise the dispute over the revised party constitution (on rank-and-file member status and requirements for vote to elect delegates) at the Central Committee meeting scheduled to be held on January 29. But few expect positive results will be achieved.

If the party constitution amendment is cancelled, the party leadership will all walk out of the party, and consequently, the party will be on track towards collapse. It will provide a good reason to quit the party. Some say party division is on the horizon, and various scenarios are emerging.

Two Possible Scenarios of Early Withdrawal-

Some members are likely to withdraw their party membership before and regardless of the result of the Central Committee meeting on January 20 or the timetable of the party caucus on February 14.

Most noticeable is the move of legislator Chun Jung-bae. The first possible scenario is that reform-minded lawmaker Chun may lead first-time or second-time lawmakers in the Seoul Metropolitan area to create a new party by merging with other reformists from the Democratic Party and those outside the political arena and then embrace other groups.

However, the question is how many will follow Chun’s lead. Under this scenario, Chun must mobilize at least 10 or at most 20 to form a floor negotiation group. It seems to be challenging.

The former justice minister said, “A realistic scenario is that the two factions of our party go in different directions but remain on good terms. They will compete with each other in good faith. Eventually the separated two factions merge again.”

Another scenario is that Kim Boo-kyum, Jung Jang-sun, Cho Bae-sook, Choi Yong-gyu, and other second-time legislators quit the party first. Under this scenario, they merge with reform-minded lawmakers from the Democratic Party and the Grand National Party to form a moderate party.

Possible Scenarios for “New Party” Faction-

The first scenario is that the “new party” faction collectively leaves the party. Depending on the result of the meeting on January 29, the faction members will be given a feasible cause to part from the other faction. Accordingly, party chairman Kim Geun-tae, his predecessor Chung Dong-young, former justice minister Chun Jung-bae, floor leader Kim Han-gill, first and second time lawmakers, and Jeolla-born lawmakers can all walk out of the party together. The scenario is in fact long overdue.

Chairman Kim seems to bear in mind that as a party leader he is responsible to hold the party caucus if possible. If Chung and Chun decide to withdraw from the party, he will contemplate whether to follow them. It is also possible that he will have conflict with Kang Bong-kyun and other rather conservative members over the identity of a new party.

Because of this possibility, some observers say Kim-led reformists and Chung-led moderates will choose different directions. Some predicts that Kim and Chun will be in the same boat.

The prediction is in line with remark of Rhee Mok-hee, a lawmaker in the Uri Party committee on public livelihood and economy. He said, “If mass withdrawal occurs, a minority will remain in the party. Among those who leave, it will not be easy for reformists and relatively conservative legislators to stick together.”

Independent Move to Quit the Party-

The majority of the “new party” faction wants to wait and see the situation. Rep. Lew Seon-ho said, “We will persuade the other faction until January 29, and if they are not wavered, we will make a grave decision including withdrawal.” Lawmaker Yang Hyung-il, a hardliner among the faction, said, “There will be no immediate withdrawal.”

However, legislator Lee Kye-ahn already wrote a withdrawal letter and announced his decision to key rank-and-file members. Lawmaker Yum Dong-yun, just returning from China, notified the party of his withdrawal.

yongari@donga.com tesomiom@donga.com