Economy to Dominate Taiwan’s Pres. Election

Who will lead Taiwan for the next four years?

The candidate of the opposition Nationalist Party, Ma Ying-jeou, is far ahead of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Frank Hsieh in the polls. This could change, however, due to the unrest in Tibet and the potential rise in swing voters to 40 percent.

○ Hsieh vs. Ma

The two candidates hail from different backgrounds, though both graduated from National Taiwan University and received doctorates in law abroad.

Hsieh is a native Taiwanese who is urging his country to declare independence. Ma was born in Hong Kong and came to Taiwan after 1949, and supports the “one country, two systems” idea of Beijing.

Hsieh grew up in a poor family but passed the bar with the top score. He lost in the 1996 presidential election as the running mate of DPP candidate Peng Ming-min. But Hsieh was elected mayor of Kaohsiung in 1998.

In 2005, he was named prime minister. He lost in the Taipei mayoral election the following year and left politics for a while. In May last year, he returned as the DPP’s candidate. Late last year, he released his autobiography, “The Pursuit of Victory under Hardship,” in which he described his tumultuous life.

In contrast, Ma is from the Crown Prince Party, or the Princelings, a party comprising the descendants of influential senior members of China’s Communist Party. He started his political career as deputy director of the office of the Taiwanese president under Jiang Jingguo in 1981. He was named justice minister at the tender age of 43 in 1993 and was elected Taipei mayor in 1998, beating incumbent President Chen Shui-bian. In 2002, he was reelected mayor and was chosen to head the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, in July 2005.

○ Voter interest in the economy

The 22.9 million Taiwanese are interested in revitalizing their economy. Over the past eight years under President Chen, the country’s GDP has risen only 19 percent.

Over that period, Taiwan’s economic growth has lagged behind those of the other “Asian tigers,” namely Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. In 2000, Taiwan’s per capita income was 14,426 U.S. dollars, 32 percent higher than Korea’s (10,891 dollars). But that figure last year was 16,768 dollars, about 20 percent lower than Korea’s 20,100.

The two candidates have pledged to focus on the Taiwanese economy. Ma said he will resolve problems related to the “three direct links (mail, trade and transportation).” He also seeks wider economic exchanges with China to raise economic growth from the average of 4.1 percent under Chen to six percent.

Ma also wants direct flights between China and Taiwan and a “cross-strait common market” to encourage companies from both countries to invest and boost the economy.

Hsieh’s strategy is to win support from low- and middle-income voters by lowering taxes for low-income families, providing rental houses on a large scale, and lower inheritance and donation taxes to under 10 percent.

He has also blasted Ma’s “cross-strait common market” idea, warning that only China will benefit from the plan.

○ Tibet unrest to change picture

The Taiwanese seem split on which candidate will make them happier, as 30.2 percent of them chose Ma and 29.8 percent Hsieh in a recent poll.

On the economy, sovereignty and relations with China, Ma has a lead of eight percentage points.

Since August last year, Ma’s support rating has ranged between 40 and 60 percent, outpacing Hsieh’s 18-27 percent.

Political analysts say the ratings reflect the Taiwanese people’s unhappiness over President Chen’s economic policy rather than their support for either of the two candidates.

Ma supports the concept of “one China,” but the unrest in Tibet could lead to a rise in swing voters. That might explain why he threatened to boycott the Summer Olympics if Beijing cracks down on the autonomous region.

orionha@donga.com