Parties in Cutthroat Race in 60 Districts

With only nine days until the 18th general elections, recent polls showed that the Grand National Party is leading in 110 electoral districts out of 245 as of March 31. The United Democratic Party is leading in around 50 precincts, the Liberty Forward Party in 10, the Pro-Park Alliance and the alliance of independent candidates supporting Park Geun-hye, a former head of GNP, in five. The competition is fierce in some 60 districts.

The figures are the results of recent surveys conducted by media organizations including the Dong-A Ilbo and each party’s own analysis of the upcoming elections.

If the current trend continues to the voting day, the ruling GNP will hold a majority in the National Assembly. If the GNP wins in 25 districts where competition is fierce, the party is expected to have more than 160 seats including an estimated 25 seats in proportional representation.

With this scenario in mind, the UDP is put on alert to secure 100 seats, a minimum number of lawmakers required to prevent a constitutional revision by the ruling party.

Parties are crying wolf to woo voters. GNP Secretary General Lee Bang-ho said, “Although the approval rating for our party is over 50 percent, the supporting rates for our candidates are around 30 percent.” UDP Co-chairman Sohn Hak-kyu also said, “We may have a shocking result of 50 to 60 seats.”

How well the LFP will do in Chungcheong provinces, the Pro-Park Alliance in Gyeongsang provinces and independent candidates in the Jeolla provinces are the biggest variables in this general election.

○ Seoul Metropolitan Area (111 seats)

The Seoul Metropolitan Area holds 45 percent of the all seats (245), and it determines a success or failure of the coming elections as no party has an absolute influence on this region. The ruling party was earlier expected to win an overwhelming victory. However, competition began to be fierce in many districts as the approval ratings for President Lee Myung-bak have recently faltered.

In Seoul, the ruling party is leading in 20 constituencies, the UDP in four and the Creative Korea Party in one district. Competition is intense in around 20 districts.

In Incheon, which has 12 seats, the GNP is leading in about five to six districts, the UNP in three to four and other three to four places are caught in cutthroat competitions.

In Gyeonggi Province (51 seats), the ruling party is ahead in 20, the UDP in 10 and candidates are running a neck-and-neck race in 10 constituencies.

○ Chungcheong Provinces (24 seats)

As the approval ratings of political parties and those of candidates do not coincide in many of the Chungcheong constituencies, it is difficult to project the outcome of the elections in this region. The GNP candidates are ahead in five districts, the UDP in three to four, the LFP in eight to nine, and competition is fierce in seven to eight districts. The LFP should obtain at least 15 seats in this region to form a floor negotiation group, but it seems to be a challenging goal.

○ Gyeongsang (68 seats) & Jeolla Provinces (31 seats)

Although the outcome of the elections for pro-Park candidates who failed in party nominations depends on how effective their “Park Geun-hye marketing” works, the ruling party candidates are ahead in around 60 constituencies in Gyeongsang provinces.

In Jeolla provinces, while the UDP is leading in 25 districts, many independent candidates are competing against UDP candidates. The results of independent candidates, Kim Hong-eop (Muan-Shinan) and Park Jie-won (Mokpo), are drawing attention.

○ Gangwon (8 seats) & Jeju (3 seats)

While GNP candidates are strong overall, the UDP is leading in two constituencies, and competition is fierce in other two districts. Meanwhile, it is difficult to forecast a result of Jeju, as competition is intense in every district.