Voting by Age Group to Decide General Elections

Political parties are making last-minute efforts to win votes with the general elections just two days away. They are paying close attention to voter turnout by age group, a key factor in the elections.

According to a survey by the National Election Commission, only 63.4 percent of voters said they will definitely vote, down from 77.2 percent in 2004.

Political circles have also expressed worry that voter turnout could fail to reach the psychologically sensitive barrier of 50 percent.

To raise voter turnout, the election watchdog has offered incentives to voters such as discounts at 1,400 national or public facilities including national museums and parks.

○ Parties’ fates hinging on turnout

Polling experts say low voter turnout will benefit the conservative Grand National Party, while a high one will favor the liberal United Democratic Party. This is because UDP supporters are mostly younger while those backing the GNP are largely older adults and elderly citizens.

Experts say the younger generation drives down voter turnout since older adults and the elderly show a higher willingness to vote. Due to this reason, UDP candidates are making last-ditch efforts to woo undecided voters just two days ahead of the elections.

In a survey conducted in collaboration with MBC last week, the UDP led the GNP among respondents in their 30s, as 54.7 percent backed UDP candidates while 23.5 percent favored those of the GNP. The results, however, were different among those in their 60s, as 47.8 percent preferred the GNP while 23.8 percent picked the UDP.

The results showed that 88.5 percent of respondents over 60 said they will definitely vote, while only 57.4 percent in their 30s said they will. With this in mind, the UDP is making all-out effort to win support from young people and older adults.

A large number of 20-something voters cast their ballots for Lee Myung-bak in last year’s presidential election, but experts say this doesn’t mean all districts nationwide will meet predictions.

Some analysts say that in the Gyeongsang provinces, many adult and elderly citizens support former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, and thus this regional characteristic will benefit the Pro-Park Alliance and independents loyal to Park, who are in a neck-and-neck race with GNP candidates.

The Liberty Forward Party said the higher voter turnout, the more it can benefit as a low turnout will allow the GNP to sway parliament in its favor.

○ 50-something voters

Voters in their 50s or older are expected to impact the general elections more than they did in 2004. Compared to the previous elections four years ago, the number of voters in their 50s has increased 1,185,880 and those in their 60s has risen 904,000. In contrast, the number of voters in their 20s has fallen 1,618,272 from the 2004 general elections.

This trend is especially true in Seoul and nearby metropolitan areas, where hundreds or even dozens of votes determine a candidate’s fate. As for Seoul, the number of voters in their 50s or older has risen 449,043, while in Gyeonggi Province, that of the same age group has increased 554,732 from 2004.

The number of voters in their 20s has fallen 230,837 in Seoul and 21,275 in Gyeonggi Province from the 2004 general elections.

According to the survey, only 40 to 60 percent of respondents in their 20s said they are willing to vote, compared to 40 to 70 percent in their 30s to 40s and more than 80 percent of those in their 50s or over.

Considering this trend, voters in their 50s or over are likely to have the most impact.

○ Weather as a crucial factor

Weather forecasters expect a cloudy Wednesday across the nation and rain in the morning. Bad weather is known to reduce voter turnout, so experts are paying close attention to the weather.

In a similar vein, the term “Republican rain” is used in U.S. political circles, meaning that rain on Election Day usually benefits the Republican Party.

In contrast, many experts in Korea say such a correlation is hardly true in the country. Some say that when it rains, voters are more likely to stay home instead of going out or traveling, raising their chances of going to voting stations. Others say, however, that heavy rain prevents many voters from casting their ballots.

Over the past two decades, only one Election Day has seen rain, namely March 24, 1992, but voter turnout was 71.9 percent. The 1996 turnout was higher at 75.8 percent, but the rate fell in 2000 to 63.8 percent.

ditto@donga.com koh@donga.com