Doubt Rising Over Delayed Cabinet Reshuffle`s Effect

President Lee Myung-bak is expected to carry out a minor Cabinet reshuffle as early as today or as late as Thursday, when the expanded G8 summit ends.

This comes about a month after June 10, when Prime Minister Han Seung-soo and all 15 Cabinet members handed in their resignations over the public’s fierce opposition to resuming U.S. beef imports.

A high-ranking official at the presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae said yesterday, “Many say the reshuffle should be concluded within this week since the Democratic Party is expected to return to the National Assembly after its party convention and the situation surrounding U.S. beef imports is showing signs of resolution.”

“But the final decision is pending on who will be replaced and a close examination of possible successors has not been completed yet.”

Most presidential officials said the most probable scenario is for Prime Minister Han to stay and three to four ministers to be replaced.

Another presidential official said, “President Lee told an expanded meeting of his secretaries on June 27 that Cheong Wa Dae must set [policy] directions and create a mood so that working-level government bodies can carry out tasks with ease. Thus the reshuffle will be carried out within a boundary minimizing agitation in the public community and ending the situation over U.S. beef imports.”

Likely on the chopping block are Agriculture Minister Chung Woon-chun, Health and Welfare Minister Kim Soung-yee and two more ministers.

Potential successors to Chung include former Agriculture Minister and ex-envoy to Denmark Lee Myung-soo, former Grand National Party lawmaker Hong Moon-pyo and ChungAng University professor Yoon Seok-won, who served as chief coordinator of agricultural and fisheries policies for Lee Myung-bak during his presidential campaign last year.

The list of candidates to replace Minister Kim has former Health Ministers Lee Gyeong-ho and Moon Chang-jin, lawmaker and former physician Shin Sang-jin and former legislator and welfare expert Goh Gyeong-hwa.

Education Minister Kim Do-yeon, Public Administration and Security Minister Won Sei-hoon and Strategy and Finance Minister Kang Man-soo could also be removed from their posts. Won angered the public by imposing admission fees at parks in government complexes, while Kang has been criticized for failing to control inflation.

Firing Kang, however, a main pillar of President Lee’s policy line, could prove difficult in the wake of the resignation of senior presidential secretary for social affairs Kwak Seung-jun, another core policy adviser to the president.

The possibility is rising that the Cabinet reshuffle will be minor, leading to criticism that President Lee, who promised to accept the people’s demands in selecting a new Cabinet, is again missing an opportunity after spending many days thinking about it.

Since the administration took about a month to decide whether to have a reshuffle, a Cabinet change now could have little political influence on popular opinion.

ddr@donga.com