Will joint military drills provoke new NK provocation?

South Korean officials are fraying their nerves in watching the situation in North Korea ahead of the joint Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises with the U.S.

Seoul is taking extra caution because Pyongyang has committed provocations every year around when the drills start.

“North Korea closed the Kaesong industrial complex during the Key Resolve exercise in 2009 and launched a torpedo attack on the (South Korean) warship Cheonan in the final phase of the exercise last year,” a Seoul official said. “We are concerned over a different form of provocation this year by the North.”

Pyongyang has denounced Seoul and Washington for the annual exercise as “practice for nuclear war.” Before the beginning of the drill, North Korean agencies including the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland and the general staff of the North Korean People’s Army have escalated the levels of their denunciations, flexed their muscles, or even made military provocations.

In March 2009, the North blocked land traffic from Seoul to the Kaesong complex before launching long-range missiles one month later and conducting its second nuclear test in May. Last year, the North sank the Cheonan and shelled the frontline island of Yeonpyeong.

Seoul is closely watching Pyongyang’s moves this year for fear that the communist country could launch another military provocation. In particular, the South believes that the North might cause a low-intensity conflict such as armed infiltration or attempt a new type of unexpected provocation.

Experts, however, downplay as unlikely an immediate North Korean provocation at a time when Pyongyang is trying to turn the situation into appeasement since early this year.

“The North Korean leadership is well aware that China cannot protect it if Pyongyang commits further provocations,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.

Many other experts, however, warn that the North could attempt provocations to seek internal unity if the post-Key Resolve situation does not go as it wishes.

In addition, some say Pyongyang is accelerating the construction of its missile launch base in the village of Tongchang as a new provocation to cope with possible international sanctions following Pyongyang’s low-intensity provocation.

spear@donga.com