Super year

2012 is the year of the dragon under the Chinese zodiac. It is “Ren-Chen” or the year of the black water dragon. Ren (black water) is the ninth of the 10 heavenly stems and chen (dragon) is the fifth of the 12 earthly branches. 2012 is the year of the black dragon comes once every 60 years. Black water dragon can mean king, imperial power, ascension, war and instability among its many connotations. People born this year are known to be gifted with power and luck. By contrast, the Japanese invasion of Korea took place in 1952, also the year of the black dragon.

Next year will see major changes in the world`s political leadership. Taiwan will hold its presidential and legislative elections in January, and Russia and France will have a presidential election in March and in April, respectively. In China, the fifth-generation leadership headed by Xi Jinping will come to power in October. The U.S. and South Korea is expecting a presidential election in November and in December, respectively, as well. In Japan, the prime minister can at any time follow in the footsteps of his short-lived predecessors. Against this backdrop, the term “super year” was coined in the U.S. and Japan to reflect the potential for a global political "Big Bang" in 2012.

Leadership changes also loom large in East Asia, including on the Korean Peninsula. The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the succession of his son Jong Un herald the start of the super year. A year from now, the South Korean people will elect a new president who will lead them for the next five years. The U.S., China, Russia and Japan, the four nations with a profound impact on the peninsula, could also undergo major political shifts.

2011 was the year of political democratization movements in the Middle East and economic uncertainty stemming from the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Political and economic jitters will aggravate next year due to the slowing global economy, change in political leadership, and the changing global status of countries. 2012 can either be a crisis or opportunity year for South Korea. Politicians, companies and civil servants should stay alert to smoothly ride out this global transition. At the end of the Joseon Dynasty in 1910, the country lost political leadership due to its isolationist policy and internal conflict. The lessons learned from this tragic time should not be repeated. The super year is just around the corner.

Editorial Writer Kwon Sun-hwal (shkwon@donga.com)