NK`s closure of Kaesong complex is path to collapse

North Korea announced that it will bar South Korean people from entering the Kaesong Industrial Complex and allow only complex workers return to the South. The statement came after the Central Guidance to the Development of the Special Zone, a North Korean bureau in charge of the cross-border complex, said Saturday if there was "any attempt to damage the dignity" of the country, it will "ruthlessly shut down the complex." Though it didn`t say deportation of all workers, it still intended to close the complex.

On March 26, the third anniversary of the sinking of naval ship Cheonan, North Korea put its troops at the so-called "combat readiness posture No. 1." The North Korean government, political party and organizations said South-North relations entered a "state of war," and the General Department of Atomic Energy said it will restart its graphite-moderated nuclear reactor in Yongbyon. Pyongyang threatened that it could shut down Kaesong complex that earns around 86 million U.S. dollars a year.

In early 2009 when North Korea fired long-range missiles and conducted a nuclear test, the North blocked the entrance of Kaesong complex in three stages for two to four days, but didn`t close it. Pyongyang can normalize the complex in a few days this time, too. The South Korean government said, "The North`s measures are creating a severe obstacle against a stable operation of the complex," but didn`t have all South Korean workers in the complex return, meaning it has hopes for normalization of the complex. It appears clear that the South Korean government wants to preserve Kaesong complex that has become a "last resort" of the inter-Korean relations despite a crisis situation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also expressed strong concerns of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula and called in South and North Korean ambassadors to China.

The biggest concern is the safety of nearly 1,000 South Korean workers in the complex. The North Korean military can block the complex entrance at its will. This would mean detainment of South Korean people. The South Korean government says it has prepared thorough diplomatic and military measures, but solving the problem will not be easy once a bad case happens. South Korean people should be prevented from being detained without fail.

Some experts say North Korea is threatening to shut down the complex because it sold much gold to China last year and secured liquidity. Others say the North`s pride has been hurt by South Korean analysis saying that the North would not be able to shut the complex down since it is a dollar box. But North Korea has nothing to gain by closing the complex. To achieve economic construction recently declared at the meeting of its Central Committee of the ruling Workers` Party, North Korea should normalize the complex. The international society including China and U.S. is also watching North Korea.