Revision of war plan called for in consideration of N. Korean military`s evolution

The U.S. Department of Defense is reportedly redesigning its war plan following North Korea`s land mine provocation. During the latest military tensions between the two Koreas, the North issued an ultimatum demanding that the South stop its loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts within 48 hours and quickly mobilized three key infiltration forces – submarines, hovercrafts and special forces troops. Some 50 North Korean submarines that left their bases escaped the surveillance networks of the South and the U.S. Around 20 hovercrafts in Cholsan, North Pyongan Province were forward-deployed in Goampo where it is possible to raid the South`s frontline islands. Pyongyang also deployed special forces troops in areas near the demilitarized zone. Such movements revealed how the North would attack the South in the event of war.

Seoul`s Ministry of National Defense reported to the National Assembly on Wednesday that Seoul and Washington operated a joint Operation Planning Team to prepare for the North`s additional provocation. This suggests that the two allies operated an organization for discussing their war operation plans at the time of the North`s land mine provocation. Although they were holding the Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military exercise, it could have been difficult for them to effectively respond to the North`s multiple and simultaneous provocations.

The U.S. has Operation Plan (OPLAN) 5027 for a full-fledged war on the Korean Peninsula and the OPLAN 5029 for a contingency situation in the North, readjusting them to security realities. OPLAN 5027 reportedly calls for sending 690,000 U.S. troops, five aircraft carriers, some 160 warships and about 2,500 aircrafts to the Korean Peninsula in the event of a full-blown war on the peninsula. Until the reinforcement troops arrive, the South Korean troops and the U.S. Forces Korea have to defend the North`s offensive on their own. In contrast, the North is said to have a strategy of occupying South Korea`s key positions, including Seoul, within a minimum amount of time. The North`s latest military moves show such intention and capabilities. It is necessary to draw up more realistic war plans in consideration of Pyongyang`s blitz tactics scenario and to prepare for all imaginable invasion scenarios including nuclear, missile, biological and chemical, and cyber attacks.

As the North is incapable of waging a full-scale war and has inferiority in objective military might, it will likely aim for weak points in the South and the U.S. A stronger and bigger one does not always win a fight. The two allies should further refine their operation plans. It is possible that the North will revise its war plan that has been revealed. The two allies should also take that into consideration in their preparedness posture to deter provocations.