GOP leadership considers `brokered convention` amid Trump’s success

As Donald Trump takes the lead in the Republican primary despite his offensive comments, the Republican Party is considering a “brokered convention.” If a single candidate cannot win majority of delegates in the first official vote for a political party`s presidential candidate at its nominating convention on Feb. 1 next year, the party will nominate its candidate on its own. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said that there was an in-depth discussion over the issue in a dinner with some 20 bigwigs of the Republican Party on last Monday.

The last brokered convention was in 1948 for the Republican Party and in 1952 in the Democratic Party, and it is de facto dead in modern U.S. politics. It is against the majority rule and the party seems to intend to hold an election excluding the public opinion. So far, primaries for a presidential race have nominated the largest vote winner in the nation, though the candidate does not win a majority.

The Republican leadership is considering the “old-fashioned” system because it thinks Trump, if nominated, cannot win the presidential election over Hillary Clinton who is highly likely to become a Democratic presidential candidate. In recent polls, Trump rarely beat Clinton. In the USA Today survey on last Tuesday, Clinton got 48 percent as opposed to Trump’s 44 percent. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Marco Rubio (48 %) was ahead of Clinton (45 %) in the hypothetical match-up. The G.O.P. leadership is trying to block nominating Trump, the outsider in Washington, as he ridicules established politicians.

“(Given the trend of opinion polls) I don’t think it would happen,” Trump said in an interview with CNN. “If it is, I’d certainly go all the way.” He said that if the playing field is not level, he could leave the party and run as an independent. Given this, he could run as an independent candidate in case of a brokered convention. “In case of a brokered convention, Trump will not be the only one who leaves the party. But I won’t run as an independent even if I leave the party,” said Ben Carlson, another outsider whose ratings are also going downwards, as he issued a statement.

ddr@donga.com