U.S. analysis says Kabul might fall in a month

Pundits in Washington are making a projection Taliban’s seizing of power in Afghanistan may come much earlier than expected. While Taliban’s expansion had been predicted after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in the Middle East, the pace is too fast. Some experts say the Biden administration’s exit strategy from Afghanistan may have been executed in haste.

The Washington Post quoted Wednesday a U.S. government official as saying that the Afghan capital of Kabul might fall into the hands of the Taliban in 90 days while others predict Kabul may fall in less than a month. The prediction for the occupation of Kabul by the American intelligence authorities had been six to 12 months, but the government forces are crumbling fast against Taliban’s attack.

According to AFP News, the Taliban seized Ghazni, the capital of Ghazni province, 150 kilometers away from Kabul. Having seized 10 capital cities out of 34, the Taliban has already occupied 65% of the Afghan territory.

The Afghan government is mobilizing massive defense troops in larger cities, but they are proving to be feeble against the aggression from the Taliban even without major skirmishes. According to The Washington Post, hundreds of troops from the Afghan National Army’s 217th Corps at Kunduz Airport surrendered to the Taliban on Wednesday morning. An official of the Afghan government told The Washington Post that no one was willing to fight. CNN reported that there are reports on Afghan soldiers who are changing into civilian clothes for fear of Taliban’s retaliation.

Amid the worsening situation, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited Mazar-i-Sharif, one of the biggest northern cities in the country, to check the security of the region. With tens of thousands of people fleeing the country for fear of the Taliban, even high-ranking government officials are leaving Afghanistan. Acting Finance Minister Khalid Payenda resigned and left the country to be with his ailing wife.

With things spiraling out of control, however, Washington is sticking to the stance of pulling out all American troops by late August. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he does not regret his move to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, adding America lost thousands of men in the Middle Eastern country and now they’ve got to fight for themselves.

Others say Biden’s decision is irresponsible, taking no actions before the birth of a failed state. They claim that Washington’s inaction can cause a similar backlash found in the resurgence of ISIS when the U.S. withdrew its armies from Iraq in 2011. “Now that we abandoned our Afghan partners, no one should pretend to be surprised when girls and women are brutalized, and And no one should pretend to be surprised when the Taliban yet again provides safe harbor to terrorists plotting international attacks,” Republican Senator of Nebraska Ben Sasse said in a statement.


Jae-Dong Yu jarrett@donga.com