Korean economy could be smaller than the Philippines in 2075, says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs, an American global investment bank (IB), predicted that Korea's economy will start to retreat from the 2060s due to its aging population and fall behind Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Bangladesh by 2075. It analyzes that even though Korea will rise as a high-income country after the U.S. and European countries in terms of per capita income, the decrease in the population due to low birth rate and aging society will drag down the overall size of the economy.

The report “The Path to 2075” published by the IB on Thursday (local time) forecasts that Korea’s economic growth rate will fall from an average of 2% in the 2020s to 0.8% in the 2040s, -0.1% in the 2060s and -0.2% in the 2070s. Among the 34 countries that Goldman Sachs released its growth rate forecast, Korea was the only country projected to record a negative growth rate.

Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase from 2 trillion U.S. dollars in the 2030s to 3.3 trillion dollars in 2060, then stagnate at 3.4 trillion dollars in 2075. Accordingly, as of 2075, the Korean economy will become smaller than Japan (7.5 trillion dollars) and even Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines (6.6 trillion dollars), Malaysia (3.5 trillion dollars), and Bangladesh (6.3 trillion dollars).

The report predicted that Korea's real GDP per capita would reach 101,800 dollars in 2075, catching up close with the U.S. (132,200 dollars) and Europe (14,300 dollars).


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