2022 World Cup Champion predictions: Argentina 50.2% and France 49.8%

Nobody could predict the game results except time. Most sports betting or statistics companies predicted an extremely close match between Argentina, No.3 in the FIFA world ranking, and France, No.4 in the same ranking, at the finals scheduled at midnight local time on December 19 in Lusail Stadium. Opta Sports, which offered match predictions for the 2022 FIFA, predicted that Team Argentina would likely defeat Team France by chances of 50.2% and vice versa by 49.8%, an extremely thin margin of 0.4% point. The percentage gets even closer up to 0.1% point between Argentina (35.1%) and France (35.0%) if the possibility of the match ending in a draw (29.9% possibility) considered.

Sports betting website William Hill also offered the same betting odds of 7/4 for both teams, meaning that the website deems that the winning odds are the same for both countries at 36.4%. Bwin and Caesar Sportsbook are both placing the same betting odds for the two teams, respectively, at 2.7 (winning rate of 37.0%) and +175 (winning rate of 36.4%).

As for the goals for the match, more placed bets on Lionel Messi to score first over Kylian Mbappe. Sky Betting and Gaming offered the odds of Messi scoring the goal at 36.4% and Mbappe scoring at 16.7%. BetMGM also offered predictions for Messi scoring the goal at the possibility of 22.2%, surpassing 20% for Mbappe.

Both Messi (570 minutes played) and Mbappe (477 minutes played) are leading the goal counts with five goals during the tournament. Still, Messi needs to score more to win the 2022 FIFA Golden Boot because the winner is decided by who played fewer minutes if players are tied on goal counts.

It is the first time that Team Argentina and Team France match against each other in the FIFA World Cup finals though they have already met three times in the FIFA tournament history. Argentina won the games in the 1930 FIFA World Cup held in Uruguay and the 1978 World Cup in Argentina. Still, France defeated Argentina by 4 to 3 in the 2018 FIFA World Cup tournament held in Russia, moving all the way to the top. International match records (between nations) show Argentina won more games against France by six wins, three ties, and three defeats.


Kyu-In Hwang kini@donga.com