Kim Jong Un-Putin pariah alliance

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia yesterday for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The journey was lengthy, spanning three days and two nights, as Kim Jong Un departed on Sunday by private train. His visit to Russia was accompanied by numerous military personnel and individuals responsible for producing and developing major weapons. The official meeting between Kim Jong Un and Putin is expected to take place today. The United States has acknowledged the concerning arms trade between North Korea and Russia as a fait accompli and has issued warnings about the imposition of additional sanctions.

While this marks Kim Jong Un's first overseas visit in four and a half years, it is unusual for him to choose Russia as his first destination rather than China, North Korea's traditional blood ally. Since the end of the Cold War, North Korean leaders have visited China frequently. The difference in influence over North Korea between China, which shares a 1,416-kilometer border with North Korea, and Russia, with only a 19-kilometer border, is substantial. Nevertheless, Kim Jong Un's decision to visit Russia first reflects their shared status as “international pariahs,” and their calculations for engagement align with each other.

At this meeting, the two provocateurs, known for invading neighboring sovereign countries and posing threats with nuclear weapons and missiles, are expected to cloak their interactions in the guise of friendly cooperation, encompassing economic, technological, and humanitarian support. However, beneath the surface, the core focus may involve North Korea's conventional weapons, such as artillery shells and rockets, in exchange for Russia's nuclear submarine reconnaissance. Such a deal could encompass the exchange of critical technologies, including satellites and nuclear missiles. This dangerous agreement can potentially prolong the Russia-Ukraine war, heighten North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, and firmly establish two new Cold War fronts in Europe and Northeast Asia.

The possibility of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has been anticipated for some time, with secret transactions already detected in the West. Russia appears to be disregarding the warnings of additional sanctions from the United States and is even considering discussions on easing sanctions against North Korea. North Korea and Russia are actively pursuing the establishment of an “anti-American triangular solidarity,” which could include joint military exercises involving the three countries, including China. This is seen as a countermeasure against the trilateral military cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. The Kremlin has continued its diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties with China, with plans for contacts with President Xi Jinping later this year.

The world is closely monitoring China's response to the two dictators as much as it is observing their meeting. China, which is cautious about confrontation with the United States, is maintaining a certain distance from the increasingly close relationship between North Korea and Russia. If China were to become involved in this situation, it would risk being seen as an accomplice in undermining international order. Any assistance or tolerance of the illegal arms trade between North Korea and Russia would severely damage China's prestige and standing in the international community. Therefore, China must take seriously its role and responsibilities in the international community.