Probing the truth behind statistical manipulation

In a striking revelation, the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea has disclosed audit findings that accuse the Moon Jae-in administration of pressuring entities such as the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Statistics Korea, and the Korea Real Estate Board to skew housing, income, and employment statistics in their favor. Acting upon this, the Board urged the prosecution to probe into 22 individuals, including the likes of former chief of staff for policy Jang Ha-sung, senior secretary on economic affairs Hong Jang-pyo, and Minister of MOLIT Kim Hyun-mee, Commissioner of Statistics Korea on charges spanning violations of the Statistics Act to abuse of power and obstruction of business. This motion comes in light of substantial evidence supporting the myriad allegations of statistical manipulation that have surfaced.

The board harbors suspicions that the Moon administration's Blue House and the ministry were privy to preliminary reports from the Real Estate Agency before the public announcement of housing price trends, with indications of exerted influence to alter certain data. A case in point is June 2019, a period when housing prices were on the rise. The Ministry reportedly pleaded, “We will be dead if this goes public. Please change the numbers to negative figure, just like the case with Jeonju,” subsequently leading the Real Estate Board to adjust the Seoul apartment price fluctuation rate to -0.01%. This adjustment explains why the government's recorded housing price increase rates were notably subdued compared to private statistics, including those from KB Real Estate.

On the income-led growth policy topic, the board asserted that false narratives and statistical manipulations were prevalent. Former President Moon, in May 2018, pronounced that "the positive effect of the minimum wage increase is 90%," a statement believed to be grounded on an analysis from an individual researcher at the Korea Labor Institute that the Blue House had consulted. However, a wave of criticism citing discrepancies with Statistics Korea's data rendered the Blue House pressuring Statistics Korea to affirm that the Korea Labor Institute analyzed the data received from Statistics Korea."

Separately, when the figures for household income and income inequality were exacerbated in the second and fourth quarters of 2017, respectively, the Blue House reportedly intervened to adjust the statistical weights to paint a more favorable picture. Furthermore, in August 2019, when the number of irregular workers climbed, contradicting the goals of the income-driven growth policy, the Blue House allegedly directed Statistics Korea to attribute the anomaly to a supposed error induced by respondent confusion in another survey conducted by Statistics Korea.

Government statistics serve as a bedrock for policy development and a reflective surface that echoes the triumphs or failures of governmental strategies. Any distortion of these figures can potentially jeopardize the nation’s standing. As witnessed in the fiscal manipulation debacle in Greece during the 2010s and China's recent reluctance to reveal skyrocketing youth unemployment rates, such manipulations can catalyze a rapid withdrawal of foreign capital, spurred by dwindling policy credibility.

Engaging in the manipulation of statistics that directly affects the lives of the populace — encompassing sectors like real estate, income, employment, and distribution— for political leverage is nothing short of causing national disorder. In these turbulent times, it is imperative to employ all conceivable avenues, including prosecution investigations, to shed light on the truth transparently.