CNN: ‘S. Korean military's biggest enemy is low birthrate’

CNN carried a story entitled ‘South Korea’s new enemy: Population math’ on Friday. "The South Korean military is finding it difficult to maintain its existing force of 500,000 troops at the current fertility rate of 0.78 children. There are concerns about the weakening of South Korea's defense power due to the low birth rate,” CNN said.

According to CNN, South Korea must enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers yearly to maintain its current troop levels. However, only 250,000 babies were born last year. "Assuming the same ratio of male to female (newborns), only 125,000 people will be able to enlist in the military in 20 years," CNN said. "Moreover, Statistics Korea predicts the number of births will drop to 220,000 in 2025 and 156,000 in 2060."

The declining birthrate could lead to an immediate weakening of South Korea's defense capabilities. South Korea is located in a geopolitically conflicted region with China, Taiwan, and North Korea as neighbors. Still, it could struggle to recruit enough troops to deal with them, according to the report.

The South Korean defense ministry has reduced the number of active duty soldiers from 674,000 in 2006 to 500,000 last year. "The South Korean government has decided to build a small but elite military based on the premise that the threat from North Korea would gradually diminish,” CNN said. “But the premise that the threat from North Korea would diminish has proven false.”

The problem is that even an elite, technology-driven army needs a certain amount of troops. Humans are needed not only to hold territory but also to oversee the operation of the latest technology on the battlefield, including artificial intelligence (AI) systems. "The defense ministry plans to increase the percentage of officers in the total force, but applicants for officer positions have declined over the past several years from 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022,” CNN added.


71wook@donga.com