Trump: 51% of votes, riding the momentum of the 'Trump trend'

Former U.S. President Donald Trump won 51% of the votes on Monday (local time) in the Iowa caucuses, the first gateway to selecting the opposition Republican Party's presidential candidate, significantly beating his rivals. After confirming his victory, he appeared amidst enthusiastic cheers from supporters at the 'Caucus Night Party' held in Des Moines, the state capital. Trump repeatedly emphasized 'harmony,' in contrast to his usual approach of indiscriminately attacking the Joe Biden administration and his Republican primary rivals.

Major media outlets such as the Associated Press and CNN definitively reported the possibility of former President Trump winning first place just 35 minutes after the vote count began. His victory speech, which garnered about 30 percentage points more support than 2nd place Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21.2%) and 3rd place former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (19.1%), closely resembled an acceptance speech by the Republican presidential candidate. The New York Times commented that it is a surprising revival of Trump’s political career, which was in jeopardy due to judicial risks.”

In addition to his supporters' invasion of the Capitol in January 2021 following his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, former President Trump faced another significant challenge. He was indicted on four criminal charges last year. While this cast a shadow on his path to re-election, his confidence in a landslide victory in Iowa led him to express certainty about being confirmed early as the Republican presidential candidate. Despite the legal challenges, Trump displayed confidence and acknowledged the performance of his rivals, Governor DeSantis and former Ambassador Haley. Trump said the two both did exceptionally well, saying that he would like to extend congratulations.

The 29.9% point gap in the vote percentage between former President Trump and Governor DeSantis on this day marks the largest gap between first and second-place candidates in the history of the Republican Party's Iowa caucus. The previous record was set during the 1988 caucuses when then-Senator Bob Dole secured a 12.8% lead over the second-place candidate.

The ' Trump trend theory' has gained momentum with the vote rate far exceeding the approval rate in recent public opinion polls. Indian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who secured fourth place in the primary on this day, announced his withdrawal from the primary and declared his support for Trump.


weappon@donga.com