South Korea should adopt a delicate diplomatic approach

According to Institute for National Security Strategy Director Yoo Seong-ok, an expert in North Korean affairs who worked as an analyst at the National Intelligence Service for 26 years, suggests an intricate approach for South Korea. According to him, the key to achieving North Korea’s denuclearization lies in convincing the United States to allow South Korea to develop nuclear weapons. The seeming paradox of advocating denuclearization while concurrently vying for possession of nuclear weapons might sound contradictory at first.

The prospect of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election will call for this strategy. This scenario cannot be lightly dismissed. Yoo asserts that this juncture presents a propitious moment for a direct tête-à-tête between Trump and Kim Jong Un. The potential exchange of diplomatic recognition for Pyongyang’s nuclear status and relaxation of sanctions for easing tensions between the U.S.-North Korea relations is where the interests of the two countries converge, laying the groundwork for a symbiotic negotiation between Kim, yearning to break free from economic shackles, and Trump, seeking an exit from the complexities of the Korean Peninsula.

Every move by Kim appears choreographed with a keen eye on Trump. In the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, provocations from North Korea, which eerily aligns with Trump’s political calendar, will escalate. Kim’s gambit is apparent: heightening North Korea's perception as a tangible threat to the United States. Trump, in turn, will castigate Biden for the perceived risks posed by North Korea, dangling the promise of dialogue with Kim as an antidote under his presidential leadership.

When November approaches, Kim’s provocations designed to sow anxiety among Americans could intensify. The specter of a potential assault on Washington and New York will be exacerbated by the nightmare scenario of North Korea possessing a nuclear-armed submarine. The U.S. is on edge over Kim’s pursuit of this technology, potentially with Russia's aid.

Should Trump emerge victorious, his negotiation gambit would revolve around tacitly acknowledging North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for averting a mainland U.S. attack. Kim, in return, will press for a nuclear armament deal, urging the U.S. to greenlight tactical nuclear weapons, all while pledging to abandon the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). If the stars align, the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and the lifting of sanctions could pave the way for discussions about the withdrawal of U.S. Forces Korea from the Korean Peninsula—an idea Trump frequently entertained during his previous tenure.

The question now turns to South Korea’s role. Pleading with Trump, a natural businessman, would yield no productive outcome. Yoo advocates for a proactive approach, creating a scenario where Trump has no recourse but to strike a deal with South Korea. The crux of this approach involves South Korea temporarily possessing nuclear weapons, creating a nuclear equilibrium that would provide leverage for negotiations with North Korea on nuclear disarmament. Yoo underscores the necessity for South Korea to play a bold hand, leveraging its ties with China to stroke U.S. fears of a potential shift in alliances. The specter of a nuclear domino effect cascading into Japan and Taiwan could propel the U.S. into a negotiation table.

Yet, let’s be clear: this is a hypothetical scenario contingent on Trump’s re-election. Nevertheless, signs suggest Kim Jong Un has already set this geopolitical chess match in motion. The onus now falls on South Korea’s shoulders. Are they prepared to seize the initiative, demonstrating a resolve that could reshape the order of Northeast Asia? The answer to this question may well determine the future trajectory of the Korean Peninsula.