S. Korea must guard against a 'new Cold War alliance'

North Korean media reported Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin showed "intention to visit as soon as possible" in response to North Korea's invitation. The statement was made following the visit of North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Son Hee to Russia from Jan. 14 to Thursday. North Korea conveyed its eagerness to “welcome him with utmost sincerity.” Furthermore, it highlighted that through Minister Choi's visit to Russia, the two nations have strengthened their "strategic and tactical cooperation" and “successfully resolved issues related to establishing, expanding, and developing the bilateral relationship on a new legal basis, achieving a satisfactory agreement between the two countries.”

Many speculate that Putin's visit to North Korea would be after the presidential election in March, but it might be expedited. The acceleration of this visit is likely to be influenced by the increasing demand for North Korean weapons amidst the Ukrainian war. Putin's visit, if it occurs, would mark the first time in 24 years since 2000 and follows Chairman Kim Jong Un's visit to the Russian Far East in September of the previous year. The significance of leaders' diplomatic interactions suggests that Putin's potential visit to North Korea could serve as a pivotal moment for the two countries to strengthen ties not just in terms of arms deals, involving the exchange of North Korea's artillery shells and missiles for Russia's cutting-edge technology, but also in military and security cooperation. The Kremlin previously mentioned the "development of relations, including in sensitive areas," about the meeting between Choi and Putin, further underscoring the potential for deepening ties between North Korea and Russia.

North Korea's mention of establishing a 'new legal basis' in its relations with Russia is of particular significance. After nearly a decade of strained ties following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea and Russia only restored relations in 2000. During that period, a newly formed treaty of amity replaced the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, which had mandated 'automatic military intervention' in emergencies. The revised treaty introduced a commitment to 'consultation in case of crisis,' redefining the existing military alliance as an economic cooperation partnership. In the present context, North Korea and Russia are likely poised to enhance mutual security and military cooperation through either treaty revision or a new agreement. If such developments occur, North Korea could align itself with Russia and China as de facto military allies.

North Korea is rapidly normalizing economic cooperation with China. According to the announcement by the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between North Korea and China last year reached $2.3 billion, a 2.4-fold increase from the previous year, rebounding to 82% of the 2019 pre-COVID-19 level. The close ties between the two nations are expected to intensify further, particularly as they commemorate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations as the 'Year of Friendship' this year. Kim Jong Un, backed by China and Russia, has already issued threats of a 'great cataclysm to pacify the Republic of Korea.' The U.S. is expressing serious concerns about the escalating threat from North Korea due to what is described as 'unprecedented North Korea-Russia military cooperation.' We must remain vigilant and prepare for the potential turbulence of a new Cold War that may impact Northeast Asia this year.