Next presidential candidate should head Population Ministry

In his New Year’s address, President Yoon Suk Yeol emphasized the need for a different approach to combat the low birth rate.

Former President Moon Jae-in also stressed the importance of nationwide efforts to address the low birth rate immediately after taking office in 2017. While the Moon administration proposed a total fertility rate of 1.4, the birth rate declined from 1.05 in 2017 to 0.78 in 2022.

Contrary to the belief that the birth rate has consistently decreased since the early 2000s, this is inaccurate. Although the number of newborns has continually decreased, the total fertility rate in 2002 was 1.178, slightly higher than the 1.172 in 2016. However, the fertility rate started to decline rapidly in 2017, coinciding with soaring housing prices.

Housing instability, coupled with a declining growth rate and job shortages, has contributed to the acceleration of the low fertility rate. Currently, South Korea’s total fertility rate stands at around 0.77, a figure comparable to East Germany right after the German reunification in 1990, when a significant number of single women left the country. This is a dire situation, and everyone agrees on the necessity for a completely different approach. The challenge lies in the method.

One common misconception regarding low fertility rate policies is that they are solely under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Health and Welfare. However, housing matters for the youth and newlyweds fall under the Ministry of Land and Transportation; the Ministry of Labor governs work-family balance assistance; the Ministry of Education oversees private education fees; and the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family manages policies concerning women and adolescents. The pan-governmental regulatory body is the Committee for Low Fertility Rate and Aging Society, which is directly presided over by the president.

However, the committee lacks the authority to allocate budgets and political power to reconcile interests among different departments and ministries. Despite being led by President Yoon, he has only presided over one meeting since his inauguration. “Vice Commissioner Kim Yeong-mi, a ministerial-level official, is an expert in the field,” a government official said. “However, difficulties in departmental and ministerial cooperation arise due to her political status being behind former Vice Commissioner Na Gyung-won.”

The saying “everybody’s responsibility is nobody’s responsibility” reflects the current situation. To address this, the People Power Party has announced the establishment of the Ministry of Population, with the vice minister as its head. Japan also established the Children and Families Agency in April 2023 to address low fertility rates.

A suggestion is to appoint Han Dong-hoon, interim chief of the People Power Party and the next presidential candidate, as the head of the Ministry of Population and a Vice Minister. Given that Han has expressed his intention not to run for the general elections, his commitment to addressing the low fertility rate, even at the risk of his position, could deter objections from the opposition party. If Han has difficulties leading the new ministry due to conflicts with the Presidential Office, other presidential candidates could also head the ministry. The next presidential candidate must take responsibility, and only then will other ministers and cabinet members support the cause and allocate government resources.

A rebound in the fertility rate is possible with concerted government efforts. France, Sweden, Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Japan have all successfully increased their total fertility rates from around 1.0. South Korea is the only country in the OECD that has failed to rebound and has fallen below 1.0. With the upcoming general elections just 70 days away, Korea has the final opportunity to address the low fertility rate. The Korean people are keenly observing how President Yoon approaches this critical issue.