Kim Jong Un unveils nuclear ambitions

In a revelation last September, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un introduced the 'Kim Kun Ok Hero Submarine,' saying, “Once armed with nuclear weapons, it transforms into a nuclear submarine.' Despite Kim Jong Un's confidence, a submarine armed with nuclear weapons doesn't necessarily meet the criteria for a true nuclear submarine. The designation of a proper nuclear submarine should be reserved for those utilizing a 'nuclear propulsion system.'

The 'Kim Kun Ok Hero Submarine,' initially revealed its hull partially in 2019, took a substantial four years to fully materialize. Kim Jong Un likely sought to instill a sense of threat into this traditional (diesel) submarine. He insisted that this new vessel could carry up to ten tactical nuclear missiles, emphasizing that the act of 'arming with nuclear weapons' qualifies it as a nuclear submarine.

However, Kim Jong Un also unveiled his ambition for “an advanced power system,” expressing a desire to develop a nuclear-powered submarine. In North Korea, the declarations of the– Kim Jong Un, a.k.a. “supreme dignity,” carry the weight of the constitution. His public commitment to building a nuclear-powered submarine implies the mobilization of human and material resources by North Korean authorities. At that time, South Korean intelligence agencies speculated that Kim Jong Un would “present advanced plans for a nuclear-powered submarine within six months.” This meant that Kim would do so for the sake of responsibility, even if they were deemed bluster or exaggeration.

Surprisingly, less than six months later, on Sunday, Kim Jong Un declared an 'important conclusion' regarding the execution plan for constructing a nuclear-powered submarine. This was interpreted to confirm detailed plans and schedules for constructing such a submarine.

A nuclear-powered submarine draws power from a nuclear reactor, operating more ‘covertly’ than diesel-powered counterparts as it doesn't need to surface frequently. These submarines are also larger in size. Among U.S. nuclear-powered submarines, the Los Angeles class weighs 6,900 tons, and the largest Ohio class weighs 16,000 tons. Nuclear-powered submarines are renowned for their speed and the ability to carry various nuclear weapons, earning them the title of the pinnacle of nuclear weaponry.

The fortunate part of this situation is that Kim Jong Un's claimed 'important conclusion' is likely a bluff. South Korean key officials assert that “North Korea hasn't secured crucial technologies for the core of a nuclear-powered submarine,” emphasizing that it remains “Kim Jong Un's hopeful vision.” It would be a long way for North Korea to present itself as a country possessing nuclear-powered submarines on the world stage, considering that only six countries currently hold such technology.

However, the immediate concern lies in the high-risk variables at hand. Kim Jong Un, actively providing military support to Russia, a nation known for its nuclear submarines, may overtly request submarine blueprints. Some observations suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may visit North Korea in the first half of the year. U.S. and South Korean authorities are closely monitoring the possibility of North Korea stealing nuclear submarine technology. North Korea targeted major South Korean shipbuilding companies with hacking attempts last year, indicating an interest in nuclear submarine technology.

If North Korea indeed possesses nuclear-powered submarine technology, it would dramatically alter the military landscape of the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong Un, emphasizing “the urgent need of the era for the navy to be armed with nuclear weapons,” would likely perceive the accomplishment of this task as imminent. In South Korea, there may be a growing domestic demand for the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. The Korean Peninsula could become a focal point of a military arms race, with the keyword being nuclear submarines."


Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com