S. Korea must thoroughly prepare against North’s gray-zone provocations

North Korea fired around 10 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) into the East Sea from Sunan on Thursday. The missiles are presumed to be super-large multiple rocket launchers. This is the largest number of ballistic missiles ever fired in a single launch. With a range of 350 kilometers, the missiles are capable of hitting large South Korean cities and major air bases. Shortly after the SRBM launches, South Korea's military detected North Korea's global positioning system (GPS) jamming signals in the area north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. Earlier, North Korea launched more than 260 "filth balloons" filled with manure and garbage southward in another GPS jamming attack. The GPS jamming caused navigation devices on fishing boats and passenger ships traveling to and from Incheon to malfunction.

North Korea's string of provocations, from the filth balloons to the SRBM launch to the GPS jamming attack, seems to be proceeding according to its plan without a hitch. North Korea launched a military reconnaissance satellite to coincide with the trilateral summit between South Korea, China, and Japan in Seoul, but the rocket exploded in midair. After its ambitious plan to show off its latest military capabilities while disrupting the first trilateral summit in four and a half years fell through, the North appears to have focused on a series of provocations in the immediate aftermath.

In fact, the day before the satellite launch, North Korea warned in a statement by its Vice Defense Minister that it would not tolerate South Korean and U.S. aerial reconnaissance, maritime mobile patrols, and leafleting by North Korean defector groups. The statement indicated that North Korea was planning to scatter "mounds of wastepaper and filth" over border areas and other parts of South Korea and threatened that "at any moment, we may exercise self-defense on water or underwater." The possibility of more lethal maritime provocations is also on our military's radar.

These provocations are part of a sophisticated political and psychological warfare effort to sow anxiety and confusion within our society. North Korea, in particular, has gone so far as to engage in filthy provocations that would be unthinkable for a normal state, such as releasing balloons filled with filth. This low-level act has stirred fears that the filth could be turned into biological weapons, such as bacteria, in the event of an emergency. Additionally, it has been used to stir up public opinion against North Korea's leafleting while also jamming GPS to create anxiety about paralyzing everyday life.

North Korea's coercive tactics include "gray-zone operations," or low- to medium-intensity provocations that are ambiguous and do not lead to actual force or war. It is expanding its means and scope beyond the missile show of force that has been its focus. Against this dirty and skillful game, the government and military must be vigilant and prepared. In particular, a calm and measured response is urgently needed to avoid getting caught in North Korea's trap of overreaction and internal confusion.