Is there no solution to break the vicious cycle of tension?

In response to North Korea's distribution of 'filth balloons,' military authorities abruptly resumed loudspeaker broadcasts on Sunday. This action marks the first time such broadcasts have been reinstated since their discontinuation in April 2018. The decision was made during a standing committee meeting of the National Security Council (NSC), with the government asserting, “Any attempt to incite public unrest and social chaos cannot be tolerated.” Following this, Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik convened a meeting of all major military commanders and directed that North Korean provocations, under the pretext of loudspeaker broadcasts, be met with resolute punishment in accordance with the principle of immediate and robust response.

The resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts against North Korea represents a key component of the psychological warfare strategy, which North Korea fears most among the "unbearable measures" announced by the government a week ago. In response to North Korea's recent provocations, the government has already suspended the entire September 19 military agreement, lifted all restrictions on military activities in the border area, and initiated the restart of loudspeakers. Despite North Korea declaring a 'temporary suspension' after detonating waste balloons twice at the end of last month and earlier this month, it resumed its provocations when our North Korean defector group launched anti-North Korea leaflets, releasing approximately 330 waste balloons on three separate occasions the night before.

The government's decision to restart the loudspeakers constitutes an inevitable response to North Korea's blatant provocation. Particularly significant is the swift implementation, driven by a determination not to be influenced by North Korea's attempts to incite a 'South-South conflict' by attributing responsibility for the provocation to the South's dissemination of anti-North Korea leaflets. With border area residents expressing concerns and even the opposition party criticizing the government's lack of action regarding anti-North Korea leaflets, it was concluded that any delay in the anticipated response would only exacerbate internal discord. Consequently, the military intends to expedite the resumption of military training along the ceasefire line.

However, the current situation of heightened military tension between South and North Korea is deeply concerning, given the potential for North Korea to engage in hard-line provocations, such as targeting the loudspeakers, in response to our immediate measures. A similar escalation occurred in August 2015 when North Korea's placement of wooden box land mines and our military's resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts led to a military standoff, with shots exchanged between the two Koreas. While emergency negotiations between the Koreas helped resolve the crisis at that time, the current state of inter-Korean relations is so strained that such dramatic crisis management seems increasingly unlikely.

At this rate, it appears increasingly challenging for North and South Korea to avoid the path towards military conflict. The situation may soon transition from political, psychological warfare involving balloons launched from the South to the North to an armed confrontation where bullets are exchanged, potentially escalating into a bloody local war. To break this cycle of retaliation, punishment, and further retaliation in response to provocations, a concerted effort is required to seek solutions through diplomatic channels and a willingness to confront the risk of conflict. Above all, there is an urgent need to establish and maintain inter-Korean communication channels during these critical times.