Harris gains momentum in four Republican-led Sun Belt states

U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is closing a gap with Donald Trump in four southern swing states considered to lean toward the Republican Party. The general consensus about seven key swing states in the presidential election this November has been that the three Rust Belt states, which have suffered a decline, support the Democratic Party, and the four Sun Belt states, named after their warm and sunny climate, prefer the Republican Party. However, Vice President Harris has recently been picking up steam across the Sun Belt.

According to polls of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada in the Sun Belt region conducted jointly by The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday, Vice President Harris gained 50 percent, 5 percentage points ahead of Trump.

She even led Trump in North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent), showing the changing patterns compared to the 2020 presidential race when Joe Biden lost to Trump in the state.

Meanwhile, Trump won Harris in Georgia (50 percent to 46 percent). He also won a narrow victory in Nevada (48 to 47 percent).

The New York Times said that Harris’ growing popularity comes from young, non-Caucasian, and female voters who have hesitated to support President Biden due to pro-Israel programs. In the four states, 84 percent of black voters and 54 percent of Latinos went for Harris.

These states are also expected to see many women take sides with Harris. Arizona and Nevada have recently decided to hold a referendum on election day to stipulate the right to abortion in the state constitution. This will put Harris at an advantage, given that she has endorsed the right to abortion.

The Washington Post wrote on Friday, based on its independent prediction model, that Harris is more likely to win the race than Trump. A presidential election victory requires a majority of the 538 electoral votes in 50 states. If the trend holds, Trump would have to win all the seven swing states across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt areas. However, Harris could win an electoral college if she captures either the Rust Belt or Sun Belt.

After all, the traditionally pro-Democratic States of California and New York are allocated with a large number of electors—54 and 28, respectively. As Harris will find it easy to earn loyal votes, she can increase her chances of entering the White House by securing partial wins.


김보라 purple@donga.com