Pyongyang carries out first missile provocations in 73 days

North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from the Pyongyang area yesterday morning, sending them about 360 kilometers into the East Sea. If aimed southward, the missiles could have reached major cities such as Seoul and Daejeon, as well as key military facilities. This marks North Korea's first ballistic missile provocation in 73 days, following the test launch of a new tactical ballistic missile on July 1, which the regime claimed was equipped with a 4.5-ton gigantic warhead.

North Korea's resumption of missile provocations after a period of relative calm is raising concerns. Despite large-scale joint military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea last month, the North had not responded with missile launches, leading some to believe that the country was preoccupied with recovery efforts from severe flooding at the end of July. However, recent actions, including the release of propaganda balloons and yesterday’s missile launches, suggest North Korea is returning to its pattern of complex provocations. These activities may also be linked to Russia and China’s joint military exercises in the East Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, though North Korea’s strategy seems to be aimed at a longer-term goal.

This latest missile provocation occurred the day after a televised debate between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, held ahead of the upcoming November 5 U.S. presidential election. While North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong Un, were briefly mentioned during the debate, the issue was overshadowed by other topics, highlighting how the North Korean nuclear threat has been pushed to the sidelines in U.S. foreign policy discussions. Nevertheless, North Korea has a history of using military provocations during election periods to assert its presence and increase its leverage. The North is unlikely to pass up this prime opportunity to raise its profile.

North Korea has consistently rejected dialogue with the U.S. and has quickly aligned itself with the new Cold War dynamics, drawing closer to China and Russia for support. However, despite these alliances, North Korea will ultimately need to negotiate with the U.S. if it wishes to be recognized as a de facto nuclear state. Kim Jong Un’s mention of “dialogue” last month, his first use of the term in over three years, suggests that he is considering talks with the next U.S. administration. North Korea may also be calculating that its actions could sway the outcome of the closely contested U.S. election.

The Biden administration has been wary of a potential "October Surprise" in the form of a provocation orchestrated by North Korea and Russia. In recent high-level South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence talks, officials assessed that a significant provocation around the U.S. election period, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch or a seventh nuclear test, cannot be ruled out. While the impact of such a provocation on the U.S. election remains uncertain, it is up to the South Korea-U.S. Korea alliance to thoroughly prepare for various scenarios and develop response plans accordingly.