Filling the remaining half of glass with new Japanese PM

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader, succeeding Fumio Kishida. Ishiba, known for his pro-South Korean stance, will officially become prime minister next Tuesday after a parliamentary vote. He is seen as a moderate within the conservative LDP, known for advocating Japan’s apology to South Korea on wartime issues, including comfort women, as expressed in a 2017 interview.

Ishiba is expected to seek improved relations with South Korea under President Yoon Suk Yeol’s leadership. In a book published before the election, Ishiba praised the dramatic improvement in bilateral relations under Yoon, calling it an opportunity for Japan.

However, it remains uncertain whether Ishiba’s views will lead to concrete actions within the conservative LDP. Since March 2023, President Yoon has worked to prioritize the future over past grievances in South Korea-Japan relations, partly driven by U.S. pressure and aligned with the two countries’ economic security interests. South Korea made preemptive concessions, such as the third-party compensation plan for forced labor victims, asking Japan to reciprocate by “filling the remaining half of the glass.” Kishida’s efforts to do so were insufficient. While Ishiba is known for his clear-eyed view of history and straightforwardness, his future choices as prime minister remain to be seen.

As former Defense Minister, Ishiba has called for an "Asian NATO" for multilateral security cooperation aimed at countering China, a plan that would require South Korea’s participation. Although South Korea is working to strengthen security ties with Japan, it is in no rush due to unresolved historical issues and opposition from China and Russia. Ishiba has also advocated revising Japan’s constitution to formally allow a military, a move seen as premature by the Japanese public, but one South Korea firmly opposes.

With Ishiba as the new prime minister, the South Korean government will revisit its strategy for Japan. Careful consideration of national interests and historical sensitivities will be essential. Many South Koreans believe that President Yoon’s concessions were excessive, and some figures within the current administration have made controversial remarks about Japan, further fueling public discontent. Stable management of South Korea-Japan relations is now more critical than ever.