Obama-Biden-Harris 'shale gas equation'

As the U.S. presidential election approaches on November 5, the outcome may hinge on Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most electoral votes at stake, 19 in total. Pennsylvania ranks second in the nation for natural gas production, including shale gas, and third in coal production, making it a hub for fossil energy. A recent study by FTI Consulting estimated that the state's economy benefits by $40 billion from the gas industry alone.

The Democratic Party has won Pennsylvania in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012, but in 2016, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and former president, narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton by 0.7 percentage points. Four years later, President Joe Biden, born in Pennsylvania, managed to reclaim the state by 1.2 percentage points. As the 2024 election nears, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is locked in a fierce battle with Trump for control of the state.

After taking office in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, President Barack Obama's administration strongly supported the shale gas industry as a way to boost domestic energy production and reduce dependence on oil and gas imports from the Middle East. This led to a "shale revolution, a boom in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, across the country.

However, concerns soon emerged about the environmental impact of fracking, including groundwater contamination, air pollution, and the potential for triggering earthquakes. Reports of headaches, sinus infections, fatigue, asthma, and miscarriages among residents living near fracking sites added to public anxiety.

According to FTI Consulting, as of 2022, more than 121,000 Pennsylvania residents were employed in jobs related to fracking, earning an average salary of $97,000—much higher than in other sectors. Landowners who leased their property for fracking earned a combined $6 billion, while state tax revenues from the industry totaled $3.2 billion. Regardless of public opinion, banning fracking would deal a significant blow to Pennsylvania's economy.

It remains unclear which candidate will win Pennsylvania in 2024. However, to stand against Trump, who promises to rescind energy regulations if re-elected, Harris may need to adjust her stance. "As Vice President, I learned firsthand how critical fracking is to the livelihoods of many voters,” she could argue. “My shift in position is not a flip-flop, but a commitment to prioritizing the needs of everyday people.”