Growing ‘Trump Risk’ looms over U.S. election

The race remains razor-thin with just three weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is losing ground, and the so-called “Trump risk” is intensifying. An ABC News poll released on Sunday shows Harris leading Trump by a slim 2-point margin, 50 to 48 percent, a notable shrink from her 5-point advantage just a month ago. Another poll by The Hill, released last Thursday, reveals even more troubling news for the Democrats: Harris is now trailing in five out of seven key battleground states, a sharp reversal from her 4-to-3 lead just two weeks prior. With the U.S.'s winner-takes-all system, these swing states will ultimately decide the election. Harris’s decision to participate in over seven interviews in October, after largely avoiding media appearances, speaks volumes about the shifting dynamics.

This tightening race should raise alarms for South Korea, especially regarding Trump’s potential return to the White House. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) has already warned that Trump’s efforts to decouple China from global supply chains could intensify if he wins. With its high dependence on semiconductor exports to China, South Korea would be particularly vulnerable.

Another pressing concern is the possible rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trump has repeatedly vowed to eliminate subsidies for electric vehicle batteries on his first day in office. His promise, aimed at Michigan’s auto workers, may seem like standard campaign rhetoric, but history suggests otherwise. After his first election victory eight years ago, Trump quickly implemented his “day-one” pledge to suspend visas for several Middle Eastern countries through executive action. If his plan to impose sanctions on U.S. exports from Mexican factories comes to fruition, South Korean companies that have invested heavily in Mexico could face significant setbacks.

The risks aren't limited to economic fallout. Trump’s potential second term could also unravel critical foreign policy achievements. He could disrupt the newly established security cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., or derail the U.S.-South Korea nuclear-sharing program, which has just started gaining traction. There’s also the possibility that Trump would demand a renegotiation of the recently settled 1.5 trillion won defense cost-sharing agreement, just as he did during his first term. Even more troubling, he could refuse to deploy critical strategic assets like the B-1B bomber to the Korean Peninsula or halt joint military exercises with South Korea.

Perhaps the most unsettling scenario is Trump rekindling his diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. There is a genuine fear that Trump could present limited concessions on North Korea’s nuclear disarmament as a diplomatic win, all while tacitly accepting its nuclear state status. This kind of deal would undermine the U.S.-South Korean alliance and destabilize the regional security framework that both countries have worked so hard to build. For South Korea, preparing for a potential Trump victory demands urgent, behind-the-scenes diplomacy with the Republican mainstream to safeguard its interests in this shifting geopolitical landscape.