US presidential election looming large as 'security variable'

“If there is such a thing, it would be an action in line with the norms of international law,” North Korea's foreign minister said on Friday, referring to the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, the North’s official Korea Central News Agency reported. This was a de facto acknowledgment of the deployment. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had also indirectly acknowledged the move, saying, “It is up to us what to do with the treaty,” referring to Article 4 of the North Korea-Russia ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ treaty, which stipulates mutual military assistance in case of war. There are also other indications that North Korean troops have been spotted in the Kursk region of Russia, according to Ukraine's General Intelligence Service.

Both North Korea's and Russia's admission of deployment indicates that the process of troops’ deployment is moving so quickly that it is no longer possible to deny it. Russia, in particular, apparently has judged that it had a legitimate case to justify the deployment after the lower house of parliament ratified the new North Korea-Russia treaty, which is seen as a revival of the Cold War-era alliance. This is cementing the notion that North Korean troops are being deployed as ‘military aid to an invaded ally’ to the Kursk front in southwestern Russia, where Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack in August and captured a portion of the region.

The North Korean-Russian deployment can be seen as a gamble on the changing international security landscape following the November 5 U.S. presidential election, with Kim and Putin effectively going all-in on t Donald Trump’s election win. Trump, who boasts of a ‘bromance’ with both men, has vowed to “end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours” if elected. The general consensus is that his solution to ending the war would be to pressure Ukraine with a halt of U.S. military aid so that Kyiv will recognize the current line of military engagement as occupied territories. His calculation is that the participation of North Korean troops in the war could create such favorable conditions to bring an end to the conflict.

The U.S. presidential election is now less than 10 days away, but the race is still very close. With Trump having a 50-50 chance of winning the election, Kim and Putin see the world's ‘Trump risk’ as a ‘golden opportunity.’ The Kim regime's ruthlessness is beyond imagination as it is sending North Korean troops as ‘human shields’ in addition to providing weapons to Russia in Moscow’s war of aggression that violates the sovereignty of a neighboring country. He will pay the price one day. For now, however, we must closely prepare for the possibility of a global upheaval after the U.S. election. The last thing South Korea needs is to be unwittingly dragged into a war, from which even its close ally may choose to withdraw military aid.