Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party loses majority in 12 years

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, suffered a crushing defeat in the general election for the House of Representatives on the 27th. Having won a sole majority in all four elections since 2012, the party fell short of a majority (233 seats) this time around, winning only 215 seats, even when combined with the seats of the other pillar of the coalition, Komeito. Prime Minister Ishiba, who took office on October 1, took the gamble of dissolving the House of Representatives just eight days after assuming office, but he did so at his own peril by losing the majority. If he fails to achieve significant administrative accomplishments before next July's upper house elections, his time in office could be short-lived.

One of the biggest reasons for the LDP's crushing defeat was its inability to recover from the political funding corruption scandal. A prosecutor's investigation surfaced allegations late last year that factions centering on former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe siphoned off some donations without recording them in their books. As the prime minister's approval ratings plummeted to the low 10 percent, 39 lawmakers were disciplined, including a recommendation to leave the party, which ultimately led to the resignation of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The LDP, however, was unable to break the ‘circle of corruption’ and dragged its feet. Many disciplined lawmakers ran as independents, and the LDP even distributed 180 million won in taxpayer-funded subsidies to the districts of lawmakers excluded from nomination. As a result, more than 60 percent of the 46 lawmakers involved in the scandal were defeated, along with the head of Komeito, the coalition ruling party, and two incumbent ministers from the LDP.

The worsening livelihood of people has further fueled voters’ sentiment to turn away. The LDP's monetary easing policies to boost the economy during Abe's tenure have been widely criticized for only widening the gap between the rich and the poor. The chronic weakness of the yen has made imports more expensive, pushing up inflation, while real wages have fallen for more than two years. These issues were as detrimental to the election as the political funding scandal.

Japanese voters were fierce enough to shake up the new prime minister after less than a month in office. Ishiba was a fringe figure in the right-leaning Liberal Democratic Party and was seen as relatively reform-minded. However, even he stalled on reforms soon after taking office, reneging on a promise to engage in dialogue with the opposition and hastily dissolving parliament. In the end, Ishiba failed to deliver the policies and political reforms the people wanted and the message the people wanted to hear, and the public didn’t wait.

Ishiba has expressed a forward-looking view of history, saying, "Japan's failure to face up to its war responsibilities is a problematic issue.” However, his electoral defeat is unlikely to improve bilateral relations with Korea as quickly as hoped. With his position further shaken, it is improbable that he can make the “decision to fill the other half of the cup” that Korea has been calling for, despite the objections of conservatives within the LDP and opposition parties.