Supporting Ukraine with lethal weapons must be carefully reviewed

As North Korea’s participation in the Russia-Ukrainian War is imminent, our government is said to be considering providing Ukraine with 155mm shells as a first-priority response, and is considering indirect or direct support methods. The weapon that the Ukrainian government has most wanted support from South Korea is also 155mm shells, and the government has already indirectly provided hundreds of thousands of 155mm shells to Ukraine last year by filling the empty arsenal of the U.S. military.

Since the National Intelligence Service’s announcement on Oct. 18 that “North Korea’s special forces dispatch has been confirmed,” the government has been sending a strong message every day, saying, “We will never sit idly by.” The Presidential Office said that it would consider providing Ukraine with offensive weapons if necessary, and President Yoon Suk Yeol also stated, “We will also consider providing lethal weapons depending on the North Korean military’s activities.” In this atmosphere, the support of 155mm shells seems to have been practically decided, with the only issue being the method. Here, the dispatch of a South Korean military observation team or a National Intelligence Service North Korea expert is being discussed.

Such a strong message or response from the government could easily lead to unnecessary controversy and backfire. Of course, a stern response message is necessary as a preemptive warning to prevent the acceleration of North Korea-Russia cooperation. However, the situation is unfolding in a way that the North Korean military’s deployment to the front lines is being brought forward. If the government now openly provides lethal weapons to Ukraine, regardless of the method, it could result in bringing forward the transfer of Russia’s cutting-edge weapons technology to North Korea, which has been the most feared.

Looking at the trends in the international community, we must be very careful about providing Ukraine with weapons or getting involved in the war. In the United States, where the presidential election is just a week away, military support for Ukraine is likely to be cut off if former U.S. President Donald Trump is elected. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, the wall in Congress will still be high. Recently, the German government has also drastically cut its budget for military support to Ukraine next year, and European countries are also distancing themselves from the war in Ukraine.

Furthermore, the majority of our people are also negative about providing weapons to Ukraine. According to a poll conducted by Gallup Korea last week, 66% of respondents said that support should be limited to non-military support, while 16% said that no support should be provided. Only 13% of respondents supported military support, including weapons. The government is faced with a serious security issue amidst the chaos. The government’s stance and actions should be heavy. It is time to carefully manage the message and devise a detailed strategy.