Trump’s second term to pressure S. Korea to join China export controls

“The Biden administration did not push for South Korea's participation in export controls against China, given the economic ties between South Korea and China,” said Kevin Wolf, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, at the POSCO Center in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, on Sunday. “But the second term of the Donald Trump administration will be different,” he added. “The Trump administration will penalize Korean companies if South Korea does not participate in export controls against China.”

Wolf was a key figure in developing the U.S. export control policy on China under President Barack Obama. The policy, initially established during that time, was carried forward through the first Trump administration and into the Joe Biden administration.

“With the nomination of Senator Marco Rubio, a known hawk against China, as Secretary of State, we could see more products added to the export control list,” Wolf said. This implies that U.S. export controls on China could reach an all-time high. Industry observers believe that advanced gas turbine engine technology, cutting-edge network sensing and signal management, as well as autonomous driving-related products and technologies, could be among the items included in new export control lists under Trump’s second presidency.

“U.S. export controls have blocked the latest artificial intelligence (AI) chips and graphics processing units (GPUs) used in advanced military equipment from reaching China,” Wolf said. “The U.S. needs to explain and convince South Korea that export controls are a security issue, rather than simply applying pressure.”

“U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is likely to use export controls not only for security purposes but also for U.S. economic gain,” he said. “As anything is possible in the Trump era, the growing uncertainty is the biggest problem facing Korean companies.”


변종국 기자 bjk@donga.com