S. Korea watches potential Trump-Kim talks with keen interest

Amid speculation about potential direct talks between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the South Korean government maintains that it is unlikely Washington and Pyongyang will bypass Seoul for bilateral negotiations anytime soon. “U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, recalling past ‘no deal’ experiences with North Korea, is unlikely to hastily engage with Chairman Kim without careful consideration,” a South Korean government official said on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, there is heightened concern within the government over North Korea’s open stance on pursuing nuclear disarmament and a freeze under the premise of its status as a nuclear state. “Should President-elect Trump engage in talks with Kim without preconditions, such as denuclearization, unforeseen outcomes are possible,” the South Korean government said. Trump, who criticized the Biden administration’s North Korea policy during his campaign, could propose unconditional talks with North Korea in a “top-down” approach to distinguish his administration. If Kim responds favorably, experts believe discussions on nuclear disarmament or coexistence could commence, as hinted by his remarks about “negotiation” and a “will to coexist” during his recent speech.

Seoul is wary of potential exclusion from security discussions on the Korean Peninsula. If direct negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang proceed, there is concern that South Korea could face increased security risks, especially if Trump prioritizes nuclear disarmament over denuclearization to achieve quick results. This situation could result in South Korea being sidelined in favor of direct U.S.-North Korea agreements.

Further concerns include the possible weakening of the extended deterrence measures implemented during the Biden administration, such as the nuclear consultation group. It could cause the potential erosion of institutionalized security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan fostered under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.


Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com