Lee not likely to exceed the 30 percent range without all-out effort

Eight years ago when former South Korean President Park Geun-hye faced impeachment, the leading candidates were reluctant to reform the Constitution. Moon Jae-in, then one of these forerunners, believed that it should be resolved by the next administration. The Institute for Democracy, the Democratic Party of Korea’s think tank, issued a report against constitutional reform, arguing that it is questionable whether constitutional amendment would gain momentum after the presidential election due to potential economic challenges and other various pending issues. Former President Moon proposed a constitutional revision in March 2018 after taking office. However, both parties were at odds with each other regarding power structure reforms, failing to reach a consensus and leading to its being discarded in the end. Critics then said that the gesture was made only to pretend to keep the promise rather than truly realizing the implementation of constitutional change.

Despite Lee’s attempts to win over the hearts of right-wing voters, anti-Lee sentiments have hindered him from expanding his influence, keeping his approval ratings stuck in the 30 percent range. As many polls indicate that voters have a higher level of unfavorable sentiment against Lee due to his involvement in judicial risks compared to Moon, potential opposition candidates such as Kim Dong-yeon, Kim Kyung-soo, Kim Boo-kyum, and Im Jong-seok focus on this point to gain the upper hand.

In his speech at the National Assembly, Lee's proposals, including the national recall system and a four-day workweek, are nothing more than attempting to scratch his feet with a shoe on. The fundamental solution to the impeachment crisis arising from the declaration of martial law is to tighten the conditions for declaring martial law so that the president is prevented from taking unilateral actions and to build a decentralized power structure. Up until last November, the opposition parties demanded constitutional amendments to reduce the presidential term. However, they changed their position during the impeachment phase, arguing that discussing constitutional amendments is only a tactic to muddle the core issues of the impeachment. To sway centrist voters, Lee would have to work on the constitutional reform debate decisively.