'Korea’s workforce expected to decline from 2030,' says a report

Due to aging demographics, South Korea’s economically active population is expected to decline starting in 2030. To maintain an average annual economic growth rate of 1.9% through 2033, an additional 821,000 workers will be needed, according to a report by the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) released on Monday.

The report, which forecasts labor supply and demand from 2023 to 2033, projects that the workforce will grow by only 248,000 over the decade—a stark contrast to the increases of 3.065 million from 2003 to 2013 and 3.095 million from 2013 to 2023. The number of employed workers is expected to peak at 28.81 million in 2028 before beginning to decline, with a drop of 14,000 projected in 2029. The employment growth from 2023 to 2033 is estimated at just 312,000, only one-tenth of the increase seen in the previous decade.

To sustain a 1.9% economic growth rate, the labor market would need to supply 29.55 million workers by 2033, but demographic trends suggest that only 28.73 million will be available.

Aging and rising demand for care services are expected to drive job growth in healthcare and social welfare. Digital transformation and technological innovation will also boost demand for software developers. However, automation and platform-based business models are likely to reduce employment in retail, food service, and wholesale industries. The highest labor demand is expected in high-skilled professions such as specialized and office jobs, while mid- to low-skilled sectors—including manual labor and service industries—will also face workforce shortages.

KEIS warned that South Korea is entering a critical transition period in labor market structure due to rapid aging and industrial shifts, calling for systematic workforce planning. Experts predict that by 2033, more than 30% of the population aged 15 and older will be seniors. To address the looming labor shortage, they recommend policies to boost employment among older workers, women, and youth, along with industry-specific workforce strategies. Kim Dae-jong, a professor of business administration at Sejong University, emphasized the need for a collaborative effort between the government and businesses. “The decline in the labor force is a structural issue, and efforts must be made to attract and retain skilled workers,” he said. “Policies should support foreign students and high-skilled professionals through relaxed visa conditions and tailored immigration programs to address sector-specific labor needs.”


이문수 기자 doorwater@donga.com